Hehe, I did not know you were posting here. After I stopped seeing your name in the journals page I just stopped checking on ET. But Kp, who is an avid stalker, ratted you out today . As always great discussion "Is impossible to be a daytrader", usually promoted by someone who was lazy enough not to have a trading plan before starting. There are tons of posts and even books where is stated that 90% of traders fail and I think that is just BS, 100% of people who think trading is an easy hobby to make money fail. Only a couple of people (I have seen more than a handful giving up during the last few years, and only one succeeding so far (way to go 40!) who take the time and effort to build a trading plan, test it and after that trade it make money, and if they have the will power to overcome their psychological weaknesses the succeed, if not then they leave. Well, some of the lazy group, for some reason find places like ET a good spot to show their frustration to the world without any productive purpose, why? Beats me.
If I was a woman, I would want to have Db's babies! LOL In all seriousness, for all those people looking for someone to follow, someone to trust after so many failed gurus failed to deliver, when you come across Db, you see that he is doing something a little different. In so many of these threads on here at ET, people want proof, which is understandable. People want to see statements and accounts before they waste even more time on yet another method. I too was curious about this, I too wanted to get more info about Db's track record. I remember asking him once how many trades are sufficient in one day, his reply was something along the lines of how ever much is necessary to get your goal. I remember asking him how many points he made on a particular day, his reply was that it didn't matter what he got, what matters is what I could get. After reading thousands of his posts, you clearly see that the best way to teach trading is to make the trader discover everything for himself. Db just teaches you how to see. Yes he provides a PDF for free that has practically everything written in it about the mechanics of it, but it is up to the trader to apply it, to make it his own, and that is where the self comes in, which is after all the most difficult part. If statements and other forms of proof aren't provided, we can look at his continued perseverance, his gracious offer to help complete strangers, the intellect hidden behind his choice of words, and especially the mighty clever analogies that illustrate his points so well. (loved the one about trying to fix a car by fiddling with the radio) All of these things I think add up to most intelligent people being able to form an opinion about the value of what he teaches. So in essence, I do try and follow everything that Db says.
Exactly, you finally admitted it. Most of us can in fact time the market perfectly. If my stop is violated then the market has proved me wrong. Let's give an actual example of a real money futures trade done intraday by myself. I shorted the market and was watching it. My mental stop was 3 ticks. I had a hard stop of 6 ticks. As trade went my way a little, I made my hard stop 3 ticks. I then targeted 10 ticks. The market went exactly 10 ticks hitting my target for a profit before reversing and going back up. And yes if I was stopped out I would have lost only 3 ticks. If there was slippage, it at max would have been 1 tick so worst case I would have been stopped out for 4 ticks. Yes, this trade is the difference between an elite trader that can time the market perfectly and someone that needs a big stop since they can't do this.
I don't get it. Nowhere did I ever deny I can't time markets. In fact I said it from the get go. So there is no 'finally admitting' because there was never denying to begin with. Finally, this is never an argument about 'timing markets'. Everyone can time markets, but they may experience a bit of volatility first before a trade goes their way. Nobody can get 100% nanosecond resolution market timing precision. This is simply BS. The more you say it, the more it exposes you as some kind of shill for special interests. What it relates to here with the OP, is a guy with a small account, who can't handle the volatility versus something else with a big account who also times the market and can handle the swings before being stopped out. Youre talking about using 6 tick stop loss yourself. So lets go back to the OP with $6K account. He opens at a discount futures broker with $500 margin. Day trades 4 ES contract. All of these were the advice given. So that means using your strategy he has 5 tries to get it right before he has lost $5500. The probability of getting 5 losing streak is quite high in a large sample. Again... context people... context.
So now you just make stuff up. Please go back and quote a single quote where I said or anyone one agreeing with me said for him to 4 contracts with $ 6,000. Instead if you will go back to my posts I said "1 contract with $ 5,000 for intraday. or 1 contract with $ 20,000 if holding overnight." Also, the trader who agreed with my post and gave it a +1 mentioned doing 1 contract with a 2 point stop. Now go back in this thread and show where I suggest anything from a special interest? You can't can you? Also, go back and quote where I gave out my strategy any where on ET, something I would never do. My posts on ET relate to order management and keeping a log of your trades to help one become a better trader. Also, why do you need nanosecond timing? Actually even in intraday, it takes a long time for price to begin and end a swing. It's very easy to use automated advanced order management that comes standard with a charting program like NinjaTrader to manage the trades for you. Many times once I am in a trade, I stop watching the chart and do something else so I don't have to wait for my trade to complete. Finally, if you think I am a shill for NinjaTrader, I would remind people here that it is free. This is especially great for someone learning to trade and wants to demo trade before risking real money. Also, for the very last time, I don't expect a new trader or someone like you to be able to time the markets or trade profitably intraday. However, once ones learns this skill, $ 6,000 is more than enough to make profitable trades without blowing out your account. So assuming even the person who started this thread learned to trade correctly, can then had $ 6.000 then futures is probably the best instrument to trade.
Why don't you go back. You were the one who replied to me. I was responding to someone else, and to the general theme of the advices given in the thread so far, which yes, included people saying trade 4 contracts with the $6k. Start account with $500 margin brokers. Leverage to the hilt. Time markets to perfection. I'm being rhetorical. I think most of us can time markets given a possible +/- 4 S&P points. Thats what I was saying. Putting a stop at 1 point is pointless. You will get wiped out. Hence why i said rhetorically you can't possibly time things 100% of the time with nanosecond precision. Yet you had to keep coming back and argue this instead of admitting you can't time markets to perfection either. Afterall, you use 6 point tick stop loss yourself LOL. There you go. Kept most of the sarcasm and rhetorical statements out. All literal. As for being a shill. It seems quite convenient for you to leave some facts out. If I go back to your original post here, you seemed to have advised the OP to (1) change his broker (he is currently with IB) to a discount broker that allows significantly more leverage, (2) use a variety of 3rd party software that charges fees, etc. Not a shill at all. As for everyone else: The only truth from this thread comes from people warning of the risks. Who do you trust? People selling you something or a dream, or people warning of the hazards of something? Its a free country and you can do as you please. While both sides can be biased by their experience, we can say definitely that only one side cannot possibly stand to gain from advices given. You talk to anybody who has ever traded, and they will admit they cannot time markets to perfection. The very idea of timing markets to perfection is ridiculous. If they really had this skill, they'd be on the forbes rich list and not on ET. Yet, even guys on the forbes rich list can't time markets either - so something to think about. Finally, lets focus on your quote here: Hopefully the irony is not lost with everyone else.
Using a 1 point stop is very useful for traders who are able to time the market. Using a 1 point stop instead of a 4 point stop actually prevents one from getting wiped out. So let's see, 1 contract with 1 point stop on $ 5,000 on ES equals a $ 50 loss. Wow, the trader sure got wiped out. The only one who is living is a dream world is you. You can't except the reality of traders being able to make profits with small stops. Now, let's look at using your 4 point stop on ES, the trader makes a trade takes a 4 point stop and gets stopped out for $ 200 on 1 contract. Using your stop cost the trader more money. I am not being rhetorical, I am showing simple math to illustrate a point. Now even with your 4 point stop, the trader does not of course get wiped out since he is using 1 contract. Yes, I suggested that if you want to be able trade with a lower base amount like $ 5,000 or $ 6,000 for only futures then one should use dedicated discount futures broker. However, this advice does not make me money. No futures broker pays me money since I make money by trading not referring brokers. Again, as per my previous quote, most of you don't talk to Michael Jordon who is a pro athlete, just as most of you don't talk to real traders using small stops. However, there are many of us on ET. I am one of them. I never use a large stop. I am sure you are right. I bet many traders use large stops and go for small profits. I bet none of these traders make much money trading or that more than 50% are profitable.
I never proposed anything about using stops. So this whole 4 point stop loss thing is your imagination. The only points I've ever made here is one should probably not be trading futures with a $6k account. Instead, guys like you are telling people that with $6K you can leverage up. Just add stop loss. Timing markets are easy. Use 1 point stop loss. But then, you yourself use 6 points stop loss. And you still can't get yourself to admit you can't time markets all the time. 6 points stop loss? You can't time markets. Some days, the markets fluctuate only within 6 points range. 6 points is quite a lot. So, if a 'pro' like you use 6 ticks stop loss, then why should the novice with a crappier strategy using 1 point? What chance does he have? Esp with HFTs causing a lot of turbulence and stop hunting. How about he use your 6 tick stop loss and your strategy. In that case, 6 points equal $300 loss. Which means, with 1 contract he has 18 tries. With 2 contracts he has 9 tries. With 4 contracts like it was suggested, he has 5 tries. Odds not looking good there.
So again, we see you have a weak math ability. I said 6 ticks not 6 points. On ES 4 ticks = 1 point So if I was talking about ES in that example, it would have been 1.5 points. But, as always just like you have a hard time doing math, you have a hard time reading what I wrote. I was not talking about ES in that example, I was trading a different futures with real money where I use a different stop level. However, in ES, I do many times with real money use just 1 point stops which is 4 ticks.
Its semantics. Not math. Your math skills on the other hand are questionable as evidenced by your lack of understanding over the risks of loss to a person with such a small account. Whatever you said, whether ticks or points, i took it one way and you think you said it another. THis is semantics. Arguing over definitions. It has nothing to do with math. You have not shown any math prowess here. So you cannot claim superiority. Just like you cannot claim superiority over being a good trader. Because that too, you have not shown any prowess in. All i've seen you contribute here, is teach a guy to leave his current broker, go to another broker, download a program and start trading futures with $6K. Telling him its very easy to time markets. Yet, even with all your superior trading skills and market timing skills (I'm being sarcastic BTW since I know you can't tell), you are not on the forbes rich list. Clearly, anyone who can time markets can strike it really rich because you can really start to compound those winnings (not sarcastic here).