Aren't you the canary in the coal mine? You are telling us the air is starting to leak out. Bubbles don't need to quite burst like the real eastate one did to be a profitable short ... although it is nice if they do. As in all shorts price action is key to the timing but my bet is the high water mark for the companies is visible through the rear view mirror. The good times are ending.
A different era -- over 45 years ago. These kids are frequently getting crap and taking on an enormous debt load with it. The schools are not all the same and ITT may be an exception but my guess is they are now all overpriced thanks to the disruptive government financing.
I hear ya, one of my daughters got a government job and decided she wanted more, so she got her masters, only to find the only job she could find that paid the same was her old job back. So she just said screw it, I'll go get my Phd. They pay her 15k a year stipend. And that's the best deal going now for a part time job (which really is all it is.) I don't get into money with her, but she says there is some government deal where they will forgive her all her student loan debt, but I know it is well over 50k. The thing is, she is married with one child, and her husband speaks very litle English and really for all intents and purposes is illiterate, yet they live here now in USA a very nice middle class life. Nice apartment, 2 cars, tv, well diversified IRA. Plus they own 2 houses and are building a third in Africa. So the American dream is expensive, but not gone for all. But so far, that education has not really paid for itself. Not like it was guranteed to do back when you and I were young. It's really a gamble. Borrow 50k in hopes of someday making it back. I'm pretty sure with a good guidence counselor and strict controls on how it is spent, many high school graduates would do better if you just loaned them 50k to do whatever they wanted to with it. Get 20 of them together with a wise business advisor and they would have a cool million to start out with. I worked for Ross Perot for a while, and he placed no stock in formal education. Didn't care one iota about your degree, especially in the computer industry where by the time the university printed the textbook it was already obsolete. One of his highest paid right hand men didn't even have a high school diploma.
the problem with shorting anything is the gvt. who knows,when they can step in and to what extend they might intervene... this is why we have bubble in first place.
You are exactly right! I don't know if it is a bubble yet but I am one of the first people to get paid in this food chain. For the last two months the air does seem thinner. It is kind of like transportation stocks doing badly before the corporate earnings start missing there estimates. My position is I have a cash cow owned outright and it would suck to see it produce less milk. This is a genuine concern because that business is worth a few hundred K and don't even do anything to earn that money. It has been a safe income source for years. If the bubble busts I am SOL! I am a bit scared because I know how these schools are operating. I always have my ears open for legitimate threats!
Machinists can get 50k off the bat with a 2 year associates degree from a techincal school with really good job security. That's right now. In my area, I think those salaries will increase as the older generation retires (whereas unskilled labor will be unchanged).
The macro picture is terrible for the diploma mills. The administration is targeting them and one day they'll take a 30% haircut in a day. http://news.yahoo.com/obama-targets-diploma-mills-market-vets-080829694.html
i think zerohedge (i know it's out there) had an article on it a couple days ago - i think it involved second market and trading student loans there.