Discussion in 'Economics' started by Daal, Sep 1, 2008.
How can one get exposure to declining prices and lower activity there
I live in Manhattan. While I don't think it will appreciate like in the past. I do think it will not drop sharply. For that to happen, you need people to start losing jobs and leaving the city.
Why do people keep asking this?
YOU CAN'T SHORT REAL ESTATE.
every heard of REITS?there could be a few massively exposed to that market there and they could be deluded that 'we dodged the bullet'. investment banks are toast, ny is in decline. manhattan is going down its only a matter of when but of course saying this will provoke the ire of the residents NY soldiers
Try REITs with NYC/Manhattan real estate or regional banks with local mortgage exposure.
Some starting points for further investigation
Regional Bank: TRST
NYC real estate will start showing significant cracks when the dollar rebounds to about 1.30 on the Euro. Only when Euro based buyers who came into the market to buy NYC properties at depressed prices (relative to dollar exchange rates) see the value of their investment drop by 15% or more will we begin to see a real dollar amt drop in this market. Until that happens, NYC real estate will probably remain stable for a bit longer.
Housing futs based on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index trade on the CME. There are broad based, as well as regional indices, including metro nyc.
Unless i have missread your post i think its back to front.
This latest move in the dollar higher is fantastic news for owners of US real estate from overseas.
Uk investors have made more than 10 pct just in currency last month.
Yes, it was backwards.
But rising dollar makes investment in US assets less attractive as the same 1M euro buys less at 1.3 than it did at 1.5. At this exchange, US properties are no longer as attractive an investment as they once were, and euro buyers will be more reluctant to make r.e. purchases at newer exchange levels, taking out one of the main props of NYC real estate in the past few years.
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