How to research and verify trading ideas

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by talontrading, Nov 2, 2009.

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  1. lynx

    lynx

    Glad I could help, I'd like to try that level 2 strategy myself sometime.

    I usually browse with Safari on my Mac. I have sisboom on ignore, and I wanted to see what everyone was talking about so I switched to Firefox to view the thread without being logged in.

    I then went back to Safari, which meant that the page in question was still sitting unmodified in my Firefox cache.

    The firefox cache files are encoded somehow, so to access them I had to copy the cache folder to my PC and run a program called "Mozilla Cache View" to actually see the contents.
     
    #601     Jan 10, 2010
  2. Ah, that's why! You cheated, you used 2 different computers! :p

    Well done anyway, as for me since I revisited the same page (url) twice on the same PC, I guess FF only kept the 2nd session in cache (wild guess, dunno how exactly FF cache works).

    Don't have Level II and never planned to use it anyway (way too tricky for my taste), therefore can't use last TT's "gift"... oh well!
     
    #602     Jan 10, 2010
  3. Hopefully this trading idea will make me money. Idea: when insiders buy over 30% of a public company with $ millions of their own money and fire the previous CEO. To verify this idea, I have put down a ton of my own real money.


    Item 5.01. Changes in Control of Registrant.

    On November 6, 2009, each of Stanford Venture Capital Holdings, Inc. ("SVCH") and Stanford International Bank, Ltd. ("SIBL") (collectively SVCH and SIBL are referred to herein as "Stanford"), who are the beneficial owners of a significant interest in Senesco Technologies, Inc., ("Senesco" or the "Company"), simultaneously entered into definitive agreements with certain members of the Company's Board of Directors to sell all of their respective interests in the Company, including shares of common stock, convertible debentures and warrants, (the "Securities") held by each of the Stanford entities to each of Harlan W. Waksal, M.D., Rudolf Stalder, Christopher Forbes, David Rector, John N. Braca, Jack Van Hulst, Warren Isabelle and the Thomas C. Quick Charitable Foundation. Each of Harlan W. Waksal, M.D., Rudolf Stalder, Christopher Forbes, David Rector, John N. Braca, Jack Van Hulst and Warren Isabelle are members of the Company's Board of Directors. The Thomas C. Quick Charitable Foundation is an affiliate of Mr. Thomas C. Quick who is also a member of the Company's Board of Directors. Such transaction was negotiated privately between Stanford and the foregoing persons and their affiliates.

    Stanford and its affiliates, including SVCH and SIBL are under receivership, and, accordingly, the transactions are subject to the approval of the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas which has jurisdiction for the assets of SVCH and SIBL. The agreements also contain other closing conditions including, but not limited to the receipt of all United States governmental and regulatory approvals, if any, the receipt of any third party approvals, consents and/or waivers as may be required in connection with the transaction and compliance with all United States regulatory and governmental requirements, including proof acceptable to the purchasers, that upon transfer to the purchasers, that the purchasers will receive valid title to the Securities, free and clear of all liens.

    As a result of the transaction, it is anticipated that the members of the Company's Board of Directors, as a group, will beneficially own a controlling interest of approximately 49.4% of the Company's common stock. In addition, Mr. Christopher Forbes, who was the main investor in the transaction, will, individually, beneficially own approximately 36.5% of the Company's common stock.
     
    #603     Jan 10, 2010
  4. lynx

    lynx

    When I saw you post that you were working on it I was sure you would win. :)

    You're right, the browser caches just keep the most recently fetched version of each page. I'm pretty sure they all work that way.

    Thanks for that, the situation looks very intriguing.
     
    #604     Jan 11, 2010
  5. Hi Talon,

    Great thread, probably the best I have seen on ET. I am sad to see the sisboom mess.

    I'd like to ask one more favor if you haven't signed off for good yet- can you post a little more about the es failed midday breakout you mentioned a while back? I am interested in testing this out, not sure where to start though, breakout from what? I guess I will start by running a 1-min event study but could use a pointer in defining the event.
     
    #605     Jan 11, 2010
  6. Talon-

    If you decide that you're up for it, I think a decent number of people expressed interest in the risk management topic earlier in the thread. I know I would be interested in questions like the following:

    1. How should capital be allocated across multiple systems?

    2. What position sizing is used within each system?

    3. How do you deal with a large number of simultaneous entry signals from one system? Also, what if you get multiple simultaneous signals for the same underlying from multiple systems?

    4. What kinds of maximum exposure limits should be set?
    e.g. account should never be more than X% net long (short) overnight
    -should similar limits be set per system, per strategy (mean reversion, trend, etc.), per symbol?

    Perhaps we could use a diverse mix of 5 or 6 example systems to demonstrate the approach. The ideal mix would include multiple strategies and timeframes, but also have some overlap so we could see how that issue is addressed...something like this:

    -Intraday mean reversion
    -Swing mean reversion 1
    -Swing mean reversion 2
    -Swing Trend
    -SP Add/Delete
    -Pairs

    Of course one's approach to risk management depends a lot on the individual, but I think many here would benefit from seeing how an established professional thinks about the above questions. Anyhow, just throwing this out here since you mentioned you may consider going in a different direction. Either way, really appreciate everything you've contributed to this point. Thanks


     
    #606     Jan 11, 2010
  7. ok this sounds like a good idea. i'll try to put some thoughts up wednesday night.

     
    #607     Jan 11, 2010
  8. TalonTrading, your thread is a neat one - I just came across it earlier today and have been doing a LOT of reading.

    OracleWizard, I'm sorry to hijack this fine (and I do mean that) thread, especially with my first post here, but you started it!

    You're referring to the company SNT In the above quote, where you've put a "ton" of your money, correct?

    I cannot find the story you reference (which doesn't mean it doesn't exist, of course), but since it is from November 2009, and there is a reference to matters requiring court approval - so where do things stand with those matters at the moment?

    The stock (SNT, again assuming) is currently at a whopping 34 cents, up from a recent low of 25 cents.
     
    #608     Jan 12, 2010
  9. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/091109/snt8-k.html

    Above is the link to the article. The trade for me is a longer term one, its not a day trade, I plan to hold for a few months, most of my money is in my stock trading account.

    Thanks to other moderators who have been cleaning up this forum. I guess when you have a forum that has some real trading ideas in it, the loons who are failed traders come out of the woods to try to ruin it since they already blew their trading accounts trying to understand Jack's strategies.

    Also, one of the ideas from Talon on this forum did make me $ 200 in less than 2 days real money, I am not going to go into it since I tweaked it a bit to get it to work, but I am happy about it. I may need to try out some of the other stuff here and make it my own.


     
    #609     Jan 12, 2010
  10. Thank you for the link!

    Understand that I was not questioning if the article existed, just stating that I couldn't find it - par for my course, unfortunately.

    Back to my question though, 1) we are talking about SNT, right? and 2) noting that there is a reference to matters requiring court approval - where do things stand with those matters at the moment? (I cannot find an update to answer #2 myself, btw)

    Thank you!
     
    #610     Jan 12, 2010
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