How to realize my outlooks?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jaken, Jun 2, 2007.

  1. Jaken


    Hi ET community,
    Im fairly new to this forum, but i like it very much. I think, here i can find the ones, who DO trade and so for their living...
    I think i already can create quite useful analysis for different markets. However my problem is (and i hope to get some help by you) that i don't really know how to implement my ideas/forecasts. I think this is one of the main problems of new traders. Giving outlooks is something completely different than the trading.
    In my opinion their are two trading setups (very generally spoken). The "breakout-trade" and the "reverse trade".
    I mean, isn't trading all about support/resistance? And if so, than we should either look for sup/res to be broken or holding it, which defines the breakout-trade and the hold-trade (where i trade the other way).
    I think a breakout trade is much easier to play (you wait for a close outside the congestion zone and put a sl, pretty tight (at least this my way to do it, because i don't want to see a breakout breaking back into the zone - but i think this does everyone in another way..)
    Doesn't matter...
    Now to my real problem, as i said before i don't know how to implement my outlooks. I don't want you to give me instruction! Im here to broaden my mind, and i beg you to help me.
    Ok, just for demonstration i'll post one of my forex outlooks which i created for last friday (06/01/2007).

    We look for declining bearish momentum on the approach to the 1.3410 level. Although daily chart is trying to build a base, we are biased to the downside as long the upper channel line holds. A sustained break above 1.3523 is needs confirm the bottom and strengthen the outlook for bulls. A break (close below) of the 1.3410 level would leave the target at around 1.3339, as this is the next clear support area. Furthermore the break of the channel line to the downside tends to accelerate the downtrend.

    Ok, what do you think about that forecast? Recognizing the crucial zones isn't that difficult, trading them indeed is...
    Can you help me a little bit? What are the important things to look at? What do you think about my view on the market, is it good, is it totally wrong? Do i overlook important things?

    I hope some more experienced traders will spend some time for me :)
    Thanks so much in advance!

    btw: if you need some more outlooks, i can do them. I'm also willing to do my "homeworks" or so... I just don't want you to think that i'm lazy and that you should "work" for me. I choosed this business and i will push it through, but as a novice you need someone to rate and help you, and i'll do as much as i can :)
    Thank you!
    Greetings Jaken

    Here's the daily eur/usd chart: Please ignore the latest candle, as the forecast was for friday (which is the latest candle).