Here is a Setup for Shorting. It uses the oil market but works fine everywhere. As described below setup based on a cruel market nature. I call it the Test_Of_RFSB. Here is a fresh example from Brent futures market. The first chart is telling the global view (1 candle = 1500 ticks). You can see on chart #1: 1) the breaking down of line A. 2) consolidation zone after break-down of A 3) development of the Selling Wave with big bearish effort around 59.40. Plot RFSB here. The idea behind the testing RFSB - is to knock out bears who joined the selling wave from good positions. Test means that -> the market makes back move up in order to trigger SLs of bears placed around the breakeven level. As you can see on the profile, we had a spike of activity at 59.40 level. So, high #4 - is the "test" of RFSB and knocking out lucky sellers from a falling market. Now, look at chart #2. This is footprint (1 candle = 144 ticks). We need to find the best moment to open a short position. 1) Abnormal Buying during testing of RFSB on faster TF. Green Clusters = Many Existing Shorts are Stopping-Out. Market Fooled that Sellers. Thereby, it lost its interest to go further up. 2) That is why selling pressure appears (Pure Genuine Supply). Price starts to decline amid the red Delta = bearish behavior. A period of transition from 1 to 2 = the rational moment to enter shorts with applying your personal Capital Management Rules. Thanks for followng
Since that time, price increased from 7900 to 8200. Let's do update. 1) After break-out of line A... 2) ...price did advance up to 8400. Study carefully the character of up-wave in point 2. It consists of 3 up-bars. Every next up-bar has bigger volume than the previous bar. And every next bar has smaller bullish progress in comparison with the previous up-bar. This is EVRT - big Effort Versus small Result. EVRT tells about Supply swamping Demand. Sellers activated above 8400. 3) This is SLKT - stop-loss killer at the Top. It: a) knocks out sellers who placed their SLs above the high of Point 2 and b) involves bulls in buying. This is pure manipulation. That is why you can see... 4) ... fast decline after SLKT pump bar. The chart tells, market is not interesting in holding above 8400 figure. 5) SLKB brings some bullish impulse to market. But it seems, buyers will not capable to develop a powerful pump and breakout 8400 resistance. IMO, negative sentiments are growing again
Yesterday, I've posted messages in Telegram Chat about gold I wrote: market is not interested in moving higher. We have to expect some sort of decline. Let's look at this market with a more detailed view and analyze how the situation has developed. I use ATAS software, a tick chart from Moscow exchange. 1) This is a pumping upmove from yesterday. I judged it as an SLKT and starting the shape of weakness formation. Note "P" shape. It means a lot of activity on the top (around 1524 level). This is a typical behavior for the weak market. You can describe it as EVRT (small Result for bulls Versus high Effort on the Top), or a wall of SELL-LIMIT orders met up-wave. 2) As a consequence of Supply Entered the market, price started to go down. This is the second stage of the Shape of Weakness formation. After slow sideways movement on Friday, we got... 3) ..News Event spike during American Session. This is another up-movement in fake direction. This up-bar diversion: a) knocked out bears from good positions, and b) attract buyers in Trap 4) Decline with breakdown of support line Believe or not - On Thursday, professionals & Insiders were aware of Friday news effect. That is why they managed to prepare themselves.
Intraday Bullish Change in #BTCUSD market. Line A - is major line of support. It can be clearly visualized on TF like 1h-4h. Now study the behavior of the Price/Volume on down-waves 1-2-3 1) Panic Volume + Wide Fearful Spread (attracting the public to sell) 2) Big Volume + Small result for bears (only SLKB actually). 3) No supply wave. Very little volume on the decline. 4) Demand Bar 5) Small NS bar 6) Another DB. In sum, we got PANIC+SLKB+NS+DB+NS+DB. After first NS+DB holding shorts became risky as the market demonstrated exhausting of selling pressure on 1-2-3 waves. That gives an idea that the Support line will be unbroken (for a while).
This is a post about Stop-Loss killer, it happens everywhere, not only on #oil. When public bulls look market goes up #1, they go long and place SL under the low of #A. Then SL-killer comes in #B. When public bulls look market goes up #2, they go long and place SL under the low of #B. Then SL-killer comes in #C. This is a cruel character in every market. Only a business. Note a spike of volume on clusters. This is knocking out sellers. If you really want to join the bullish team, cluster #3 could be a signal for you. Buying here has arguments: 1) cruel market lost interest in going lower because it has triggered many SLs of buyers already 2) M5 profiles show the growing POC - it confirms the interest to go higher. Hope it was useful
#ACB #stock market is developing in the down-trend stage. However, the character of down-move 1 could be interpreted as the Panic selling wave. Now we have to get a confirmation from the Chart. The lines of downward trend channel should produce bearish movements 2 and 3. If the Cumulative volume on that down-waves will decrease in comparison with Panic wave Cumulative volume - then we will get more facts about the accumulation of cheap stocks around level 4.0$
Today I wrote in the Telegram Chat: ZRX broke above the previous major high. I believe in Correction. The progress of wave A was quickly nulled. Actually, as you see in hindsight, it was a clear manipulation: #FOMO wave has an extremely size of volume. Extremely high volume on up-bars = hidden weakness. #SLKT above the #FOMO waves – additional Trap of smaller scale (intraday size) So, the current trading range is developing in the format of the #distribution stage. That is why I do believe, #ZRX #cryptocurrency has negative sentiments
Example of Judging the #Bitmex #XBTUSD Market Action using the Price and Buying/Selling Volume We Have 3 downwaves A-B-C. All downwaves were finished around 8475. 1) Study the Profile of Each wave - They have "b" Shape. 2) Study the Selling Volume - We have a lot of Spikes in red Delta and Red Clusters around 8475. So, we got signs of hidden strength around 8475. It seems that Professionals Accumulated the falling flow of coins using Buy-Limits. Study the wave D. Here where Strength turned Real. We have breakout above the resistance line. So, Bulls are producing big efforts to push market up from 8475 level. If they fail, this level will act as resistance. OK, this all great. But how you can trade this situation? Turning delta from red to green (circled blue) around SFDB green horizontal line - is a rational setup to join the bullish campaign.
In my previous overview about #Gold (view my profile for more links), I wrote: this maket did trading in the range of balance between 1500-1520 levels. As a result, we got the formation of a big "bell shape" in market profile (left side indicator). Yesterday, we got the first clue about future direction with the breaking of minor blue support line. 1) Selling of pressure to break down the minor blue support line At the opening of today's session, chart confirmed the market's intention. 2) Trap for bulls at the opening of the session (I use data from Moscow exchange, futures section). Green clusters represent: a) buyers are entering Trap b) sellers are knocking out from good positions 3) Another portion of genuine Supply (Selling Pressure). So, Buying Culmination + EVRT on 03/Oct revealed its power - the Market broke down 1500 level. It should act as resistance. Sentiments are negative. Next week should produce the development of decline. Breaking out above 1500 with the bullish style will invalidate the bearish course.
%% I see your points ; but dont overthink it.EVEN @ high point like 2000 on your chart ;price/ market uptrended before +after+ during you chart + past 200+ years. That's why as far as profit=trend is a friend. And rates are lower than your chart ; trend = friend. NOT a prediction.,