How to profit from the loss Venezuela and Russia will take?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by toben, Dec 5, 2008.

  1. toben


    I sold the last of my stocks today except for Berkshire Hathaway.

    I have been watching oil prices and know this is going to destroy the government budgets of Russia and Venezuela as well as a few other countries.

    How can I profit off this? You can't short the government directly. The last time Russia had a major problem in 98 they chose to not pay on their own bonds.
  2. Short the Ruble. XRU, it's illiquid, but the only one I know of.
  3. You may be a little late to the trade besides the ruble short. RSX is a russia sector ETF, but is already down 80%... It has stabilized here and the panic is over (for now).

    I actually like RSX as a buy since I am bullish oil long term. What are the odds they nationalize every single company in Russia in this ETF?
  4. You did the exact opposite of what you should do!

    I am buying commodity stocks and energy today (XLE) in my retirement account.
  5. toben


    The historical low for oil is $10 a barrel. We are at $44 or so and falling.

    The time to buy is when it gets to the $10-$20 range.

    Oil has never ever been as high as it is now except for the last 4 years.

    I sold my oil stocks because they were 30% off the high while oil was down 70% and falling.
  6. The market just voted. XLE was at the exact bottom when I posted, and soon after you posted. It went 7.5% UP from that point in few hours.
  7. This is a funny thread.

    The OP does seem to have the characteristic of puking up at the bottoms. But claiming the bottom on one bar is even funnier.

    Have I accidentally come to Elite Investors?
  8. toben


    I don't claim to know the bottom. I sold the majority of my stocks last June when the hindenburg omens hit. I held on to the oil/gas and wells fargo.

    I sold my CVX today because: stock was down 30% but oil barrel is down 70% and falling. I'm up on CVX for the few years I owned it and I want to lock in my money now vs it going down the next 6 months to a year, which is likely but not a sure thing.

    I bought at $26 watched it hit $100 last summer and sold today at $70. I am happy with my $26 - $70 performance as I don't believe I could pick the top/bottom of the market.
  9. piezoe


    Is your data in constant dollars? I think that's the only way to know where we are really at.
    #10     Dec 5, 2008