How to never get an account wiped out?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by gg12, Jan 9, 2007.

  1. ssss

    ssss

    increasing my risk to about 70%!!!
    ------------------------------

    Dear Sir

    If you true trade from real money account with start capital 10000 $ ,better stop this kind of risk .

    30-40 trades and you would catch decisive loss in most of the case's . in 10-30 trades you would have opportunities close position with profit ,small profit or small loss.
    But with high chance ,one after would with decisive loss....

    If you are more as 120-180% on account 10000 $ for 45 days,switch to small risk 2-3% . Very possible you would lose
    serie with 20 trades (as example 15 loss,5 profit),but you would
    at life .

    Your respectfully
     
    #131     Mar 28, 2007
  2. gg12

    gg12

    ssss

    Thank you!

    I don't care about my original bankroll. So, it's a different game!
    I could loose all the accumulated money in one shot and would not cry. Therefore I can risk all on one trade (what I will not do, because in trading nothing is 100% sure). Because of taking 'abnormal' risk I can take the 'abnormal' reward.

    As you have seen from my prior posts I am using the Kelly criterium. How to wipe out the account? When I am loosing the position size will go down.
     
    #132     Mar 29, 2007
  3. ssss

    ssss

    ....gg12

    ssss

    Thank you!

    I don't care about my original bankroll. So, it's a different game!
    I could loose all the accumulated money in one shot and would not cry.
    ###################

    Objective - ?

    Better take love value account 2000$ .(USA retail standart account,
    which calcualted by 10-k of public noted
    broker)
    You would have multiple attempt's possibilities.

    -300 -500 % per month for account start value 2000$ ,you would be one operator
    from approx 1 000-10000 .
    (independent how many attempt's was performed ). If you perform this task
    two time and secure your record by SEC ,multiple's ET member's would say ,that you are very good one ...

    As you knew exist different broker's
    which offer 1-1.5$ per one option ,no minimum by direct routing (thinkorswim,mbt and ameritrade for 0.75$ for 45 days &)

    It would give you flexibility by risk management .

    It would be better as try to perform
    200-300% per month with start
    capital 10000$ .

    Your respectfully
     
    #133     Mar 29, 2007
  4. ssss

    ssss

    ...s I am using the Kelly criterium.

    This is limitation of small quantity of your trades

    To say with good chance -
    operator have 6 winning trades to 4 losing by risk/reward 1:1
    ( optimal risk on each trade 20%)

    must perform atleast 1000 trades
    not 100 trades .

    Your respectfully
     
    #134     Mar 29, 2007
  5. gg12

    gg12

    ssss

    Good feedback! Apprechiate it and it makes me thinking.

    I trade from a real money account - it's real and no dream.

    In my opinion start capital doesn't matter. Wrote it off. The inital bankroll was small and not important for a living to me. In my understanding 'Trading for a living' means that the outcome sooner or later will pay all expenses.

    So far I decided not to take a share of the earnings. In case I want to I can tranfer money from my trading account to my 'daily expenses' account.

    In terms of number of trades, I have no specific statistics about each trade every day, but I assume to having made some hundreds of transactions meanwhile already.

    Why I am taking big risk? Because I think reducing risk keeps rewards low. I want to continue to develop an edge that justifies taking that risk every day. In addition I want trade correctly to make continued growth happening. That approach is independent of any actual account size.
     
    #135     Mar 30, 2007
  6. ssss

    ssss

    In my opinion start capital doesn't matter. Wrote it off. The inital bankroll was small and not important for a living to me.

    ...f number of trades, I have no specific statistics about each trade every day, but I assume to having made some hundreds of transactions meanwhile already.

    Why I am taking big risk? Because I think reducing risk keeps rewards low.

    ########################

    Objective -is matter

    Read Klausewitz,Adm.Mahan ,Napoleon,Zomini .

    To which group you will present your result ?
    To perform from industry 10-k calculated account 2000$ to 12000$ in one month
    2would 500%

    It would enough impress ET, SEC ,
    broadly mass of retail public and author .

    IF you have 10000$ ,better
    to make 5 attempt's with 2000$
    as one with 10000$ .
    ---------------------------------------------
     
    #136     Mar 30, 2007
  7. gg12

    gg12

    ssss

    No, first time I disagree with you.

    Make only one attempt.

    Focus all your energy on it.

    Work hard, harder, hardest.

    Get this one thing done!
     
    #137     Mar 30, 2007
  8. gg12

    gg12

    03/29/07 +2.9%
    03/29/07 +9.9% (max risk was about 50% of total account)

    I can risk 50% of my account for 10% gain, if I am more than 75% sure that I will win. It's a 3:1 odd bet. Was it a 3:1 chance today staying between +75 and -100 points in the DOW today?

    Q1 statistics
    =========

    Start capital: 21.76% of initial payment
    End capital: 291.47% of inital payment

    --------------------
    Profit 1339.47%
    --------------------

    Total trading days: 62
    Average daily win: +4.3% over 62 days
     
    #138     Mar 30, 2007
  9. ssss

    ssss

    No, first time I disagree with you.

    Make only one attempt.

    Focus all your energy on it.

    Work hard, harder, hardest.

    Get this one thing done!

    ######################

    Take illustrative example

    100 top operators performed 500% in month
    from 2000$ account . Attempt's are not limited

    How many from this 100 would perform this result
    from 1 attempt ?
    Suspect 1-3 ,if any

    How many from 5 attempts ? Would this quantity more
    as quantity from 1 attempt.

    Science (Game theory -A.Puankare ,J.von Neumann,Shannon) answered with high chance yes .

    Author experience in different real quote contest's,whcih are controlled by authority (SEC,Germany SEC,Swiss court)
    full in correlation with game theory

    Your respectfully
     
    #139     Mar 31, 2007
  10. ssss

    ssss

    Counterarguments to opinion above ,as result is deflated
    through mutiple attempts ,can be matched .

    Mark D.Cook,Martin Schwartz have mutiple years of excessive losse's ( mutiple attempt's) and after that Martin Schwartz performed in modern price (Part of GDP relation)
    from 1 mln $ untill 9 mln $ for one year .

    How many operator's from 100 mln ,have perfomance comparable to this (if they trade without insider information,
    full in consistency qith USA law)

    Author suspect some 10-20 from 100 mln . operators .
    And with high chance all have had multiple excessive losse's
    (or multiple attempt's )

    For small account ,comparble performance for top operator must be more high ...
     
    #140     Mar 31, 2007