How to measure probability of side ways move

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by bln, Jun 6, 2022.

  1. Compounding is, truly, the 8'th Wonder of the World,

    Trade 1....100
    Trade 2 ....200
    Trade 3....400
    Trade 4....800
    Trade 5...2000
    Trade 6....4000
    Trade 7....8000
    Trade 8....20000
    Trade 9....40000
    Trade 10....80000
    Trade 11....200000
    Trade 12....400000
    Trade 13....800000
    Trade 14....2000000

    The skill, rarity, mastery, of course...is being relatively consistent and able to pull off those, winning, trades. And not many people have these traits, mindsets, and understandings to accomplish such a feat.
     
    #41     Jun 7, 2022
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    That's not how it works in the real world. That is simply a mathematical formula.

    You would need a 100% win rate to pull that off, and nobody in the world has it. So pipe down, useless yeoman.
     
    #42     Jun 7, 2022
    SunTrader and taowave like this.
  3. I'm over simplifying the lesson, of course. But the key is that if a, rare, trader is consistent in their trades and understandings....they can, ideally, accomplish great things.
    It's all about the process, the trade. and the money, and the buildup, will follow secondary.
     
    #43     Jun 7, 2022
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    "Ideally" is the key word in your response.

    Nobody can do it, dude. If they could, there would be a "100% compounding ETF" out there. And there is not one.

    Just look at Expiated's "1.8% compounding" thread here in Forex. He could never even double his size, because it was too risky. He never compounded once.
     
    #44     Jun 7, 2022
  5. ETF's, Funds, Wall St, Managers, Traders....they are all dumb money, as far as I'm concerned.
    And individual, retail, traders are even Dumber money.

    I don't compare myself to any of them.
    That's like the inventor of Electricity or the Atom Bomb saying it's impossible....since no one else has done it.

    Again, if a, rare, trader has understandings of his process....then he can grow into great things. The Golden Spiral of trading.
     
    #45     Jun 7, 2022
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    You know, you are starting to remind me of someone...

     
    #46     Jun 7, 2022
  7. Damn, I'm Good -- or wise.
    @5:01 in that video clip....I knew 'both cups would be poisoned'.
    Never take up another's challenge, you can't win because it's fixed. You can't make a deal with the devil, and expect to win.
     
    #47     Jun 7, 2022
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    What was your previous nickname on this forum?
     
    #48     Jun 7, 2022
    taowave likes this.
  9. taowave

    taowave

    What's with trades 5,8,11 and 14??
    100 percent compounded wasn't enough??



     
    #49     Jun 7, 2022
    Overnight likes this.
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    He has a calculator that broke when the first digit was an 8. He's the Sicilian.
     
    #50     Jun 7, 2022
    SunTrader and taowave like this.