how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by pawpaw, May 27, 2003.

  1. Ditch

    Ditch

    Jack advocates entering on the breakout, (that's what i read in his stochastic thread). So as a breakout -trader you need to ride trends in the Es, otherwise you get whipsawed bankrupt. Such a method won't work in 1 min timeframe. BUt hat doesn't mean a scalper can't have positive edge in the 1 min timeframe and beat the trendrider's bottom line at the end of the day.
     
    #41     Jun 2, 2003

  2. You just joined EliteTrader so you could say you agree
    with Jack?...Interesting
     
    #42     Jun 2, 2003
  3. Rhiger

    Rhiger

    Breakout,

    Actually, I have been a member for a little less than a month or so. I have been reading many threads and trying to get up to speed as to what has been discussed to this point.

    I was going to post a comment about trading trends while learning to scalp. Jack beat me to it and I commented on my agreement.

    What is so interesting about that?

    Should I have made my first post elsewhere and then come back to here...lol?
     
    #43     Jun 2, 2003
  4. See attached graph.
     
    #44     Jun 2, 2003
  5. :D

    quick [dumb] question - i'm not sure i know what you guys mean by 'retracement' - do you mean pullback to the breakout level? and when you say 'trading retracements' does that mean buying the pullback to the breakout level??

    thanks in advance (and great thread, btw),
    -b
     
    #45     Jun 2, 2003
  6. Oh, okay...cool. I'd still be interested in hearing what you have
    to say about trading trends while learning to scalp. And welcome
    to the boards!
     
    #46     Jun 2, 2003
  7. On the contrary. I think that when a trader limits themselves to trading with the major trend they suffer many drawdowns within the overall trend and limit money making opportunities.

    In fact the scalper that has a fixed set of entries/exit signals and good money management won't be exposed to as many risks, especially overnight drawdowns.

    Since the subject of this thread is index futures trading I will address my comments to index futures when I say that indices do not lend themselves well to trend trading because trendlines are frequently broken and then the direction is continues. There are many fake-outs and directional reversals that frustrate even the most disciplined trader.
     
    #47     Jun 2, 2003
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    This matters only if one defines trend trading in terms of a trendline, and only then if one exits simply because the TL has been broken.

    I thought I knew what pawpaw was going for in his initial post, but I may have been wrong. For some reason, these discussions always wind up being about mechanical scalping, and that's a shame.
     
    #48     Jun 2, 2003

  9. Okay...I see what you're saying, now. And that's cool. But, I
    wouldn't be able to do that. That doesn't mean that you're
    wrong and I'm right, okay. We're both right...it's just that I
    would rather get in and out 5 times on the way up rather than
    try to hold that 1 trade for a hour.

    Thanks for posting the chart...a chart speaks a thousand words.
     
    #49     Jun 2, 2003
  10. Nice set of comments. It is good to see where a person is in their methodology.

    your explicite current challenges appear to be:

    1. Drawdowns.

    2. incompatibility of trend lines and futures indexes

    3. "fake outs"

    4. directional reversals

    Some implicite ones:

    a. money management exposed to risks.

    Add the Breakout viewpoints:

    See elsewhere.

    This doesn't look good for you.

    It does have to be said, however, that there is someone on the other side of where you are.

    Again thanks for your comments. I can see that being in your place isn't too hot.
     
    #50     Jun 2, 2003