how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by pawpaw, May 27, 2003.

  1. Ditch

    Ditch

    i guess..
     
    #111     Jun 4, 2003

  2. Nice Call...!!:D
     
    #112     Jun 4, 2003
  3. Ditch

    Ditch

    and without volume indicators:confused:
     
    #113     Jun 4, 2003
  4. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Though you are using a MACD, so you're not exactly indicatorless :p
     
    #114     Jun 4, 2003
  5. Ditch

    Ditch

    What do you expect of a rookie?
     
    #115     Jun 4, 2003
  6. Volume comes in after the breakout.
     
    #116     Jun 4, 2003
  7. Beginners hang out on the 5 min and I hope they were in on the rocket at sync or at latest by 10am. Their rocket exit was about 11am plus. In again at 15:15 or so and out at 15:45 or so.

    Ice bergs in with beginners nad out at 12:05 or so. In at 12:15 and out at end of day. Just two long trades.

    If an expert is on the 1 min chart the first formation is a FTP and it ends with VDU and a BO up as expected. they could set brakets after sync on the initial congestion and then see the centering vis a vis the FTP. They are in at 10 and got to pace of market by finding the "tape". the tape trend is fouind after point 3. Point 1 is 10am point 2 is 10:03 and point 3 is 10:14.

    First "flaw" is at 10:45. This heads up is that the traverse from right line to left line fails. We are now out of "continuation" mode and into "change" mode.

    We will reverse as dictated by future signals. We get four signals:
    Volume VDU, MACD div, STOC div, and BO on channel. So we ease on down the road by taking profits and our entry.

    By keeping lists for sequences we can monitor and just check off the signals as they occur and do our reverse where we want to.

    If an expert waits for more signals; he continues to get them.

    My one minchart is annotated below
     
    #117     Jun 4, 2003
  8. See attachment
     
    #118     Jun 4, 2003
  9. Definitely a no brainer as usual.
     
    #119     Jun 4, 2003
  10. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Thanks for your answers and the chart. I must be misunderstanding something regarding the MACD, so please correct me. Using your settings of 5,13,6 here are my MACD histogram readings this morning starting with the 9:35 bar (5m chart):

    9:35 bar (closes at 9:40): -0.20
    9:40 bar (closes at 9:45): -0.20
    9:45 bar (closes at 9:50): -0.03
    9:50 bar (closes at 9:55): -0.02
    9:55 bar (closes at 10:00): -0.02
    10:00 bar (closes at 10:05): .42

    As you specify +/-.40 (respectively for longs/shorts) I don't see how a beginning would have entered a rocket at sync or even by 10am. The earliest I see would be when the 10:00 bar closes at 10:05 (producing the MACD reading of .42), which of course is just after the huge spike-up due to the ISM Services report today at 10:00am.

    And towards the end of the day:

    15:10 bar (closes at 15:15): .12
    15:15 bar (closes at 15:20): .24
    15:20 bar (closes at 15:25): .28
    15:25 bar (closes at 15:30): .51

    Again, it wouldn't be til the completion of the 15:25 bar at 15:30 that the MACD would meet your minimum requirement.

    Two questions come to mind:
    1. Are you suggesting that a beginner ignore MACD if Stoch and Vol meet the requirements?
    2. Even if the MACD had been .40+ prior to 10:00am this morning, would you recommend waiting for gov't reports (which almost always cause spiking and strong moves) or simply jump on board early and hope (ugh...) for favorable reports.

    Thanks again.
     
    #120     Jun 4, 2003