how to manage false breakouts on NQ ES

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by pawpaw, May 27, 2003.

  1. Cool...you're what I would call a player!...:D
     
    #101     Jun 3, 2003
  2. stocon

    stocon

    Keep em commin.:D :D :D :cool: :cool: :cool:
     
    #102     Jun 3, 2003
  3. I've had my moments. LOL....
     
    #103     Jun 3, 2003
  4. I am so glad you commented.

    See in your quote at ****'s



     
    #104     Jun 3, 2003
  5. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Jack, thanks for your commentary as always. Today (Wed) was a perfect example of what we were talking about yesterday, you have a rocket bo soonafter 10a, then a severe volume fall-off on the 1min indicating a failure, so beginners might do a wash exit. But if you reverse and go short right on the VDU around 976.50 (actually there were two VDU's in a row at 10:09 and 10:10), then you got nailed as the bo continued upward about 6min after the VDU's with full force. That's why I was essentially asking if you reverse right at the VDU or wait for some other confirming signal.
     
    #105     Jun 4, 2003
  6. pretzel

    pretzel

    I dont know but it seems prices are pausing or even falling when the VDU's occurred and the MACD is still high.

    pretzel
     
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    #106     Jun 4, 2003
  7. Ditch

    Ditch

    chickens can ride the rocket too:p
     
    #107     Jun 4, 2003
  8. Ditch

    Ditch

    Although my name is not Jack, i like to on comment this. Riding this trend was a no-brainer when you look at price-action. Yesterday was a congestion-day, the market traded back and forth in a narrow range inside the previous day's range, so this favors a breakout. The first half hour was spent in a 3-point range awaiting the news. Within 3 min the market rose 5 pts, pretty strong breakout, i guess, then if refused to retrace below 1r, and below ema-20, indicating strong upward monentum. So imo, price action rules, not volume, or trin,tick and all that crap.
     
    #108     Jun 4, 2003
  9. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    pretzel, please explain what you mean, I don't follow you.

    Ditch, I agree, by price action one would have stayed long. And beginning rocket traders, who only follow the 5m would have probably stayed long (depending on how they play the Stoch).

    But if you abide by the volume on the 1min it certainly did not sustain the bo, and fell back sharply from 10:01 to 10:08, leading to the two VDU's that I mentioned at 10:09 and 10:10. That was my question to Jack.
     
    #109     Jun 4, 2003
  10. Ditch

    Ditch

    I understood your question, but again my point is don't trade volume, trade price, and after a 14 pt move start looking for congestion and go for the 2pts trades.
     
    #110     Jun 4, 2003