The point I was making is this- If you had a chance to double your account ("make size") on one trade with a 90% chance of success, but if you were wrong, you'd lose all your money, would you take that trade? Again, if you swing very big and aggressive, you had better be right early and often. None of the long term successful traders I know would ever consider trading that way. They are all relatively risk-averse. Not to say they won't risk a lot of money when the opportunity presents, but never enough to make a substantial dent in their trading capital.
======= Nick Good pick s. And another reason it may not be best for some to trade QQQQ with leverage; not everyone has a Paul Tudor Jones personality or even wants to hunt gamebirds. And, any ETF are almost never best % gainers. Electric Savant sounds like your helpful wife has certain seasonal swings; which well , are seasonal swings, something a swing trader or any time frame trader could appreciate/work around.
there is a spectrum of trading, a spectrum in life. there is a time to turn your cheek, and a time to punch. once you understand that, you have full freedom.
you just have to do the right things, and follow the rules and let the market tell you what to do, you will defintely making SIZE money.
Corey: A trader taking that bet would be characterized as a "full Kelly" bettor. Currently I know of none still in this business although there could certainly be someone naive enough to do so. For myself I will bet up to 1/2 the Kelly system for my personal account on trades whose percentage is 95% in my favor. This year I have done this 6 times. All of them went my way. I would expect to get hit at some point and so one way to minimize the inevitable loss is to sweep profits out of my account on a regular basis. That way when I do get hit on one of these trades the impact on my net worth will be less than 2%. In other words, there is a way to do it if you simply act intelligently. Steve
you toouched on an important point, and something that would have helped me up to this point greatly: sweeping gains from your account. such a newbie mistake to not do it. what % do you sweep and how often?