I doubt it's very common but I'll grant it's more likely than roulette spins. Stocks do have a generally upward drift.
I normally take 4-6 losers before I get my prize, and I will ride this hottie prize all the way through..
Remember, we are not betting on whether it is red or black, we are betting on how people will bet when it starts trending. that's why I say, even if you are hermit trading in your pajamas, you need to be a people person.
While I'm sure it's generally a good thing to be a people person, I'm not as sure that it's essential when trading in your pajamas, as you say. "...If there’s one basic principle, he says—repeatedly and slowly, as if instructing a child—it is this: “Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-moving-japan-made-more-than-1-million-trades
Actually that's not what he's doing. He's buying stocks that are being sold. But nothing is lost by waiting for the turn as long as one knows when that is occurring.
I thought the Softbank trade where he made the market was more the exception than the rule. You'll also note from the article: "Two years after learning to follow the momentum, CIS says, he’d made 80 million yen day trading on the sly at the office. In late 2003, he quit the salaryman life to work the market full time." As you wrote, nothing is lost by waiting for the turn. I think once a turn has spread its elbows just a bit, so to speak, that is perhaps the safest time to initiate the first leg of a position. It doesn't have to end there, but I think it's the best place to start. And, as I'm sure you'll agree, that's not calling a turn; it's acting on one.
I'm not sure I understand the rationale, unless the outcomes are not independent (slanted machines or whatever). But then, I've never set foot in a casino.