how to judge a system no longer profitable?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by robinxing, Jul 13, 2007.

  1. joesan

    joesan

    robin, as i have said several times before, the system whose snapshot are posted here should have been thouroughly tested, before being traded in realtime. there is some sign of overoptimization there. you may deny , as there are several hundreds samples there, but that's not enough. I have experienced this before and learned it in a harder way. To be able to survive long, cautiousness is always our best friend.
     
    #11     Jul 19, 2007
  2. Your results also have the characteristics of a strategy that has been over optimized. of course it is hard to tell by just looking at an equity curve.

    it is another system

    I have done the Monte Carlo test

    here is snap shot of the result
     
    #12     Jul 19, 2007
  3. joesan

    joesan

    Hey Monte carlo test is not enough, bcz it cannot reveal the potential problem of your strategy if the imputted sample is not representative

     
    #13     Jul 19, 2007
  4. Yes, but it APPEARS that he has a large number of trades involved here. Not sure though.
     
    #14     Jul 19, 2007
  5. combine three system together
     
    #15     Jul 19, 2007
  6. the setup of the test
     
    #16     Jul 19, 2007
  7. feb2865

    feb2865

    How about

    no system at all??

    just good old price action using S/R

    I tell you no matter what the market do, will never fail you.

    No offense indtended as I sound somehow contrarian

    just something to think about
     
    #17     Jul 19, 2007
  8. joesan

    joesan

    Sure, but it is intraday system. 6 month can yield hundreds of trades, 6 month result, IMO, is not long enough to be significant even for intraday systems. 6 month of 2001 and 6 month of 2007 are surely different.

    And Monte Carlo simulation, by definition, can yield countless combinations even for a smaller sample


     
    #18     Jul 19, 2007
  9. joesan

    joesan

    but the program for Monte Carlo test looks nice, Robin, where did you find it ?
     
    #19     Jul 19, 2007
  10. a freesoftware from nerotick website
     
    #20     Jul 19, 2007