Okay, 11:45est candle on the 15 min ES chart for today. Chart is attached for those that want to look. What is everyone's analysis of that candle ? BTW, the blue line is the 20ema. Woudl u have went long at the close of that b/c of the ema ? Thoughts or analysis would be great. <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2044597>
Looks a bit like a flag pattern. Low risk entry near the bottom of the candle. I would have gone long there had I not already been long. The EMA is fine but more telling to me is the surge in volume. Remember: hindsight is 20/20.
I would have been looking for a higher high after a series of lower highs for an entry on a continuation of the uptrend. I would then have been stopped out at 1 tick beyond the previous bar's low. Outside bars are a pain in the arse, aren't they?
even w/ that support at 88, that 11:00 est hammer was a decent indication for me that this needed to pullback some before the next upthrust. I guess there were just too many bulls to care. And yes, that outside bar was a bitch.
First looking at the characteristics of that chart the stock does not seem to be a very reliable 15 minute timeframe trade. You need to find something with more volatility than a major index. If you decide to pursue the 15 minute chart with this stock then please look at more history then just this one day. You showing this picture chart to me tells me that you have no regard for historical pattern movements which is one of the most profitable strategies a day trader has the ability to use but yet the most difficult with out years of analysis and personal study. Good luck.
based on that 15 minute bar...it would have looked like the ES was getting weaker and it was trying to close the 8-8:30am gap...and the the volume was a volume spike only to see the price retrace...hmmm...guess it would have been wrong...
1)Shallow, contracting volume pull back within a ST uptrend. Note: the low of that bar traded within 1 tick of the RTH open. A level I always keep an eye on. 2)Personally, I wouldn't so much as expend a good fart based on an ema. But that's just me.
I use the 20 and the 50 on the 15 when the market is strong. In hindsight, I now see the the dry-up volume on the 15 leading up to that bar should have made me skeptical of this move down. Breaking the 15 up, and taking a look at the 5 min, u'll see that we bounced off that intraday support level and the 50ema and the next 5 min bar was a strong up candle (11:50est candle on 5 min). I really don't know how i failed to miss that signal on the 5. Gotta leave that chart up more. Damn 1 min is just noise anyway. (sighs)