Accumulation or distribution has typically occurred before a trend day of significant range. Thus one clue is in the analysis of the accumulation and distribution points leading up to the trading day (hence the idea of multi-frame analysis perhaps acting as a leading indicator). If "support has held" or "resistance has been an effective ceiling" to price movement in the absence of undigested news predictions with a modicum of accuracy can be placed. Then if volume corroborates price movement you may have an unbalanced market which will trend all day to a new balance point. Market profile type of stuff.
One of the better posts I've seen recently. Bsm it sounds like you and I have something in common. That said, please avoid giving away the family jewels on ET
bsmeter2, Can you please elaborate? These kind of jewels can belong in more than one family. Thanks, Lar
I don't want to speak for bsm, and I would like to hear his comments as well. However, consider the fact that price action and it's nature throughout the trading session are not, I repeat not, normally distributed. Consider two scenarios in which there is opportunity. Scenario #1: Currently the market's participants are behaving in such a way that it *is* normally distributed. Scenario #2 Currently the market's participants are behaving in such a way that the tail(s) is much fatter than history dictates. The more stupid money floating around, the more often #1 and #2 will be seen. The less stupid money around, the less you will see it. Don't trade unless there is alot of dumb money sloshing in an instrument. That is more than enough information for you to get yourself into an intrigue I think
Try very hard to not get "stuck" on this level of trading. It is extremely important when you get to this fork in the road to take the other fork. Very Imperative.
================= robi; Trend lines help id a trend very well, daily ,weekly. 50day moving average, 20dma, 20 period [like on houl ]candles; avoid so many trader errors/bias that trader drawn/goofy trend lines have so much of Wisdom is profitable to direct
Very interesting TD80, I agree. It is important to know who you are looking to take money from. Very wise to go after undisciplined dollars. I like how you view it in the here and now. Thanks. Peace and gtty, Lar
When you can tell how an instrument is feeling and where the bets are being placed, then you just fade the crowd and not much else matters. Of course there is timing and probably plenty of variations on the theme, but that is fairly trivial once the concept is grasped. The analysis is extremely simple, and has little to do with where price has been and more to do with how the participants are acting at the moment versus what the results were of similiar behavior in the past. I've often heard the phrase "Fools predict, Kings react" used here on ET. For one of my less profitable systems, it embraces this approach. I however wish to add a 3rd option, which applies to a much more profitable endeavor: "Emperors know how the majority of their subjects feel" Best of trading to you.