Oil could go relative short term to $80, end of year even below $50 and to levels of 30/40 You have been warned for your business investment.
just follow price. i was watching GC futures trade yesterday and when it was down to 1500 price looked like it was bottoming but then it kept going lower and closed down another 25 points. if you traded based on fundamentals or anything other than price you would've been carried out feet first. if you were one of the zero hedge crowd just going long gold all the time losing 100*90 against ~$6k in equity per car is going to hurt.
Is this based on a crystal ball or is there another method behind this? I agree that all of what you say is POSSIBLE but the chance of it going below $50 is slim (and I am bearish on the world economy) and the chance of it going as low as 30 is, of course possible, but slimmer than Twiggy. Twiggy might be a very dated reference ... lol.
+1 w/ the usual caveat to just watch price. if oil goes to $50 you can be sure there is another financial crisis in which case you should be hedging against complete disaster not just oil.
what's next? if the DJ trades below 1000 the world is coming to an end? you should always be hedged it has very little to do with the market