Hello Sekiyo, You do not know what a trading edge means or how to quantify it. So why do you care about trading edge, if you do not know how to quantify a trading edge?
I am not sure what you mean … But the formula is pretty simple and I already gave it away. It’s the kelly criterion: (p*b-q)/b p is p(win), q is 1-p and b is reward/risk This tells you the maximum bet size. Now it’s up to you to quantify your edge.
Hello Sekiyo, But, how you can be guaranteed and assured the trading edge based on your "kelly criterion" will make you rich or meet your personal trading goals in X years? X mean the trader defined monetary goals to stop trading! Perhaps, others like @MarkBrown or @Handle123 can comment or not comment at all and keep your secret to yourself.
I'm beginning to get the idea that people think edges are rare and difficult to find. Neither of these are true. I assume most of this community are retail traders. In that case, you just need to ask what edge (or structural advantage) do I have versus others (think large accounts with professional managers)? An obvious edge is a execution edge. You can buy/sell most securities without serious slippage. Large accounts have to work into and out of positions over time to avoid excess slippage. With this edge you can trade in shorter time frames than larger accounts. You can throw it away by trying to do arbitrage against automated program trading platforms, but for the most part this edge is unlikely to go away.
I could identify a good edge every time I take a dump - there are countless edges. If you cant find them your not looking hard enough or need more experience. For me - an edge is an event that repeats often enough statistically wins more than half the time, and makes at least 5R on the wins. Now finding an edge is the easy part, the harder part is executing it. Mindset and good risk/profit mgmt makes or breaks any potential edge.
You could give losing trades your best setup & they will still F it up and lose. They do it 1 time, lose & give up forever. You can't teach mindset.
That's probably one of those things that only time will tell. If after many months/years and many,many trades you are profitable,, well it appears you have found an edge. Of course there will always be a nagging thought in the back of your mind have I really found an edge or was it all just luck?