How to evaluate my trading

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by richk, Jun 30, 2005.

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  1. Baron

    Baron ET Founder

    I'd like to chime in on this thread just to voice some of my own opinions on the matter, as this thread could probably go back and forth like this forever.

    First of all, I do agree that there needs to be more accountability for chat room operators and similar types of advisory services. It would be great if potential subscribers had access to some audited historical performance data for a point of reference. Since I started Elite Trader back in 1997, I've seen a lot of these chat services come and go over the years, and probably less than 1% have any sort of audited performance data. Personally, I think a huge market opportunity exists for a service that can offer audited track records, even if those records show a less-than-stellar performance. The transparency alone would go miles towards building credibility with the trading community.

    However, with that said, I don't think that track records are the holy grail of chat rooms for a couple of reasons. First, past performance is not indicative of future results, and any past track record can quickly go in the negative given the right set of circumstances. Second, track records would ulimately be based on the cumulative results of an operator's calls over a given period of time. The problem is that most subscribers are not going to spend as much time in the room as the chat room operator. Many subscribers are not in the room every day of every month, nor do they stay in the room all day long like the operator. So it would be very easy for a subscriber to miss out on good calls and trade the bad ones, and vice versa. Subscribers also will not get the same executions. I can't tell you how many time I've seen certain subscribers who are slow to hit the buy/sell button make a loser out of a winning call that others in the room profited from.

    I think audited records are good but they have limited value. Even if a track record shows a so-so performance, it doesn't mean that the operator isn't a good teacher. Many of these chat room operators are also offering their time to answer questions, analyze problems, and teach concepts. David Leadbetter, the famous golf coach, is a great example of this. He gets paid big dollars by professional golfers to tell them how to be better. He's written many successful books and has golf schools across the country. David Leadbetter's personal track record on the golf course certainly doesn't rise to the level of the professional players that he coaches, so one could make the argument that he's simply a scammer or con artist, because if he could really do what he teaches, he would be on the course winning tournament after tournament. But we all know that simply isn't the case. Because if it was, then we should expect for all business school professors to already have made millions in the real world, law school professors to have already been big-name attorneys with winning court records, and medical professors to have previously been pioneering surgeons and physicians. But it doesn't work like that in real life. Teachers are able to teach and mentor in a way that many "successful people" simply can't. I remember watching a Greg Norman how-to video one time and coming to the conclusion that he has no clue why he is as good as he is. He just wasn't that great of a teacher. Likewise, just because a person is an outstanding trader, it doesn't necessarily mean he could teach what he does to others in a way that would make them as successful. I've met many very succesful traders over the years who were simply terrible at explaining how they do what they do.

    I'm not trying to defend every advisory service out there, because there are definitely some shady ones. Services that imply that you can't lose if you sign up with them, or those that promote outrageous returns are definitely ones to stay far away from. But honestly, I do not put threei in that category. He's been running his service for longer than most, and he says clearly on his FAQ page on his site that some people will lose money, some will break even, and some will make money. So there's no implication that there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for every trader that signs up. I know threei personally, and we always run into each other at the trader expos and chat for a while. And I don't believe him to be a scammer, snake oil salesman, con artist, etc., especially given the many years he's been in this business.

    So in summary, I think audited track records would be good for these services to make available, but I also believe its inappropriate to label a trading service as a scam simply because no audited track record is available, especially when that service also includes training and mentorship. And furthermore, I think it's very inappropriate calling any vendor a con artist in a public forum like this without having any personal experience with the service whatsoever to back up that claim.
     
    #61     Jul 13, 2005
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