How to Distinguish between trending and Choppy Days

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Flashboy, Oct 10, 2003.

  1. million of years ago i tried to find out the same thing. i tried to look at whether previous day was a narrow day or trend and predict the next day would be the opposite (simplified). NR7, WR and all of that crap. It didnt work with enough accuracy for me to base my intraday strategy on it. The original poster has nailed the answer in his own question I think. Yes, price action, watch price action starting at the open like a hawk, pretty soon it becomes clear whether it's a trend day or not. The further into the day, the more confidence you have in that determination (duh:) But the poster also said "as easy as reading price action". I think if it was very easy there wouldnt exist a thread like this :)
    #11     Oct 10, 2003
  2. thanks fast trader, sounds like an excellent idea. I think that I will regroup my stocks this weekend and give it a try. Can you tell me where I can find the trin.

    I suspect that you traded the stocks up the least in the strong sector. Is that correct.

    #12     Oct 10, 2003
  3. Peter, I chart the TRIN using eSignal. I'm sure any charting platform can chart the TRIN for you.

    I can't really answer your second question since I only traded the semi-conductor sector; and only a few key stocks within that sector. On one hand, one would think the weaker stock in the strongest sector has more upside potential, but at the same time; I'd be a bit wary since there's a reason it's weak. So, no, I wouldn't trade the weakest stock. I would pick a strong stock in the strongest sector since I'd be sure it was moving with the sector. Remember, this is when the TRIN is bullish. When it's bearish, I'd pick the weak stock in the weak sector.

    #13     Oct 10, 2003
  4. Each time the market makes a high volatile day consolidation often follows with whipsawing effect. A low volatile day can be followed by a high volatile day and a high volatile day followed by a low volatile day : this is called anti-persistancy. I could explain on my model how to know where and when but since you don't have access to it I won't extend here - I will rather talk about that in one of my thread if ever I think to do so.

    #14     Oct 11, 2003

  5. Traderkay,

    What I meant by "as easy as reading price action" was that there is no need for any fancy indicators or complicated calculations..

    Just mearly watching the price action to determine..

    In no way am I trying to say that predicting price movement is easy.
    #15     Oct 11, 2003
  6. ========
    Best & cheapest but not easy way;
    explore top green line on the top of this page, ''click books'' and i wish i did that more when starting trading.

    DIA, SPY, QQQ only chopped,moved about UP .20 yesterday;
    fine for swing,position traders.

    I look for patterns almost anywhere, especially on my printed chart book;
    keep in mind the clear persistant , persistant,directional uptrend
    of DIA, SPY, QQQ and that 's not random the .20 move was to the

    Cant think of a better way for most traders to chop and downtrend thier equity account than to try to short or overtrade in directional uptrends like this one though October is about due for another correction.

    The plans of the diligent tend only to advantage-Solomon, trader king.
    #16     Oct 11, 2003
  7. Tea


    Harry hit it on the head.

    This is the first post of his I have been able to understand.
    Perhaps because his thoughts were condensed to a small paragraph they made more sense.

    Harry's thoughts are like a fine wine - if exposed to too much air/space, they go bad. :D
    #17     Oct 11, 2003
  8. Jeffo


    #18     Oct 11, 2003
  9. Do you know what Deming said about Shewart the father of Statistical Quality Methods ? He said I quote from here 'that one reason he learned so much from Shewhart, he remarked in a videotaped interview, was that, while brilliant, Shewhart had an "uncanny ability to make things difficult" Thus he spent a great deal of time both figuring out Shewhart's ideas and devising ways to present them with his own twist.' :D (You can read a few pages of a major book from Walter Shewart here
    "Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Statistical Control"
    I love this book personally for its rigor about epistemology of science applied to real world industry - since Shewart was working for improving industrial process - but I have the french version only if not so I could give you some extracts :) )

    So let's say that there is at least an advantage when you don't understand me : it may force you to think by yourself better :D.

    #19     Oct 11, 2003
  10. Reminds me of another opaque French theorist. The psychoanalyst Jacque Lacan made sure he was not clear as the subject of his work- the unconscious- could not be known by definition.

    He repeatedly dissolved schools set up to teach his method b/c if it became too clear, the real meaning would be lost.
    #20     Oct 11, 2003