Check current IV - Check IV from previous day, week, month etc. But as someone mention above high IV doesn't necessarily mean it's expensive. Could be priced in on an upcoming event. Usually, meme stocks that run up out of nowhere do tend to be very expensive thou.
Such data seems to be expensive It seems to be not enough reasonable approach Is the procedure in the initial post correct or not? Maybe it is better to use log returns instead? How? I can use daily returns and annualize them multiplying by 252^0,5. Or use weekly returns and annualize them multiplying by 52^0,5. Or use monthly returns and annualize them multiplying by 12^0,5. The result seem to be very much the same.
You are off to a decent start by comparing Historical Vol to Current Implied.. Some pointed out that you should also be looking at what percentile implied vol is trading at,i.e where does current IV rank against past Implied vol... Orats has "historical" rolling IV for different periods.30 day,60 day etc which can be used as an entry filter. Would I recommend buying options when IV his historically high??? Not without a proper backtest....
log returns are stdev(ln(stock1/stock2))*sqrt(252) on a daily scale the straight return is a decent approximation. You give very little information on what you are trying to trade so it's hard to say what will be reasonable for you. index/commodities, single stocks without earnings, single stocks with earnings, long time frame, short time frame etc. These will all play a role in determining how you determine if an option is rich or cheap in ivol. If you don't want precision to your strategy then just use IV to recent HV. That's what the pros do.
How to do it correctly? Is the procedure in the initial post correct? mostly ETFs, stocks with earnings and dividends and without them. Time frame - one week to 2-3 months.
etfs 1 week: use recent hv vs Iv stocks without earnings 1 week: see etfs Stocks with earning 1 week: only use your forecast Stocks without earnings 2 months: use iv vs recent hv compared to index same Stocks with earning 2 months: use stocks without earnings plus your earnings forecast. Use daily returns or daily log returns. If you are holding to expiry this information will be less valuable than if you are planning on closing before expiry. In any case delta will be like 90percent of your pnl driver unless you are trading in fringe case vol regime.
Lol@ General Tao..I like it All I said is Say Wut,and once again you have sent me on a wild goose chase Im going to backtest different levels of IV rank..And FWIW,you probably arent far off...
I tell you there is no reliable way to predict future volatility, not from historical or current IV. If you found a way, I would like to know about it. For once, I would love to be proven wrong. It's so dangerous to short options when the IV is low. You know how far gamma can go according to my theory.