How to define a trend 100 % objectively ?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by fluttrader, Feb 25, 2008.

  1. Writing that you are right does not make you right. I can prove my statement mathematically. Can you at least give a counter example? Work an example, and you should be able to see that I am right.
     
    #31     Feb 26, 2008
  2. +1
    :) indeed...
     
    #32     Feb 26, 2008
  3. Good idea. Use Linear regression. One last thing, please trade the ES. Thanks.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #33     Feb 26, 2008
  4. I think there is another point that is not looked at correctly.
    Higher higher and lower low, pre-suppose that one decided on a time frame for each bar,and a time frame for the trading.

    Therefore the other question that is left is the time-frame? How do you decide on it? I think this is the central question in trading. Once one can include multiple time frames and trends, one can make money much easier.
     
    #34     Feb 26, 2008
  5. +2

    :D
     
    #35     Feb 26, 2008

  6. EXACTLY !

    That is the crucial thing when you start talking about local highs and lows,
    when does a certain zone becomes a local high or low, you need first to define this BEFORE you can use these local highs and lows to derive the trend from it.
     
    #36     Feb 26, 2008
  7. Don't be so cruel now... :)

     
    #37     Feb 26, 2008
  8. pneuma

    pneuma

    They would be two separate examples of how one might start to write their rules.

    But thanks for the clarification.
     
    #38     Feb 26, 2008
  9. Not sure how much harder you want it. I use the slope of a simple moving average on commodity futures to define if its in an up- or downtrend. Then I am either long or short. Very simple.
     
    #39     Feb 26, 2008
  10. Interesting makloda,

    I use emas rather than smas (intraday) but require testing behaviour relative to the mas rather than just slope change or crossover alone.

    For the OP. Trend is always in the eye and the timeframe of the beholder. If it was objective or simple then anyone could do it --- and what's more, computerize it!
     
    #40     Feb 26, 2008