How to define a strong trend ?

It's a little subjective.

For instance, please see the low i marked with a red arrow, at the time, howcome that was not the HL?, making your HL mark, a LL.

 

IMHO:

It would be very hard or even impossible to come up with an objective definition that can be coded.

I would like to hear some comments and suggestions. Hopefully, some fellow members may like to share their experience.

 

It may sound weird, but for me trend or not is identified by... the shape of pullback. It's a little bit hard to explain (NoD just made the best possible job to do that IMO), but that's how it is for me: when I see the directional thrust and the market then retraces in a "good" shape I treat it as likely to continue and thus it's likely a trend and consequently I trade with the trend.

 

If close > bollingerband(20,2) * 1.02 then buy next bar at open;

 

Simply a somewhat different view


I like to see where in a consolidation area – a battle ensued

I like to see trapped traders – either on the long side…, or short

I like to see where shorts and longs fought for control – and blood was exacted

iow – I like to see pressure build up

So that when it eventually bursts – and it always does – it bursts with a big boom (meaning = with move traders are scrambling to get in… the other side exiting with their asses scorching)

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The other way a strong move occurs – is when one side is conspicuously absent


I can always rest assured either of these types of moves will go big
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To eyeball the magnitude of a move (I hate the term trend) – let’s say its an UM in this instance;

Draw a diagonal line – @ 45 degree up angle

Above it = is strong/ growing stronger
On it = is nominal
Below it = is weak/ weakening

Reverse above for a DM

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Mkt likes 50% levels…

45 degrees is half way (50%) between dead flat, and straight up to the f’n moon….

Or half way between dead flat and straight to hell (holloween humor as it were)

RN

 

Forgot one other salient point

A move can have magnitude – but lack strength

or

A move can lack magnitude – yet have strength

Always good to know what the big boys are doin.. or have done

RN

 

its not really subjective .. yes its a lower low... if ya watch it as a trend within a trend .. i just didnt labled it ..

but i context its a higher low ..

just gauge the buying and selling waves ...

 

the best scalper I ever knew just simply traded the 50 vs the 200 day ma

all he traded was NQ

he was very rarely in a position more than an hour

if the 50 was below the 200 he only scalped from the short side

in those days, the 50 was below the 200 for like a year

so I guess you could say he identified a trend and capitalized from it

 

In a strong trend, a pullback will likely remain as a pullback, and not transform to a reversal. Yes. The details of the pullback could be very important.....

 

what timeframe though?