How to call major market turns

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DavidDT, Jul 20, 2008.

Is is possible to call market turns?

Poll closed Jul 30, 2008.
  1. Yes

    12 vote(s)
  2. No

    5 vote(s)
  3. Get lost

    6 vote(s)
  1. DavidDT


    Is it possible at all? If "yes" - why not so many succeed doing that? If "Not" - why is that so many keep trying ( some of those are getting multi million dollars compensations for not been able to do so )

    Now, here is a collection of market turns calls - you judge if it is possible.
    These are market calls made on this site ( list) BEFORE it happened:

    Call on Financials and Homebuilders rally after second week of July

    Many ways to scan a cat...

    Call on OIL Selloff after 4th of July ( JUNE 14TH!!!)
    (XLF) or "Toxic" Financials Part 2

    Call on market top in the beginning of June ( on May 30th )
    Chart of about to be rotten (?) Apple ( AAPL)

    Call on market bottom ( on March 13th )
    Market is about to change

    List can go on and on...
  2. Some are even spamming their blogs on message boards frantically trying to convince others they are gifted traders and forecasters!
  3. DavidDT


    If you, instead of been so full of been opinionated, would take time ( may be 5 minutes, no more) - you would see that scenario you are referring to is not the case here.
    I am NO Tim Knight who kept calling "today is THE BOTTOM" for a month now
    No offense, but before making statement ( if you are an experienced trader - you have to be open to possibilities, instead of been sarcastic for no good reason )

    Updated 5 minutes after Macloda decided to go even more impolite - Macloda - good luck convincing YOURSELF that you are a good trader, hope you've been successful making living trading for more than 20 years. ( original message from "Macloda" was about "broken clock been right twice a day" )
  4. ammo


    one spot as a trader if your good and lucky is a point where you are right 70% of the time,then you are catching the big turns and really know your stuff,at that point you learn a new lesson(reallly an old one that you have'nt been reminded of lately)no matter how big you are ,or confident you are in your market reading skills,the market is always right and you take a really big hit,you tary on with the majority of your over confidence in tact and get smacked again,humility is a very valuable trait in the markets,and calling tops and bottoms is a very unforgiving strategy
  5. While David does not seem to be particularly blatant about referring others to his own blog and is new to this site.

    You are reminded that redirecting people to your own URL is a violation of EliteTrader Terms of Service. Please review the Member Conduct Rules/TOS, item#6, and refrain from doing so in the future to avoid account suspension.
  6. DavidDT


    I could not agree with you more, calling tops/bottoms is very risky preposition, one who attempts to do so has to be prepared be not even right 70% of the time, but rather "wrong 70% of the time". In light of that - risk control is the most important component.
    Having said that - in volatile markets of late, if you are swing/short term trader - ability to spot potential bottom/top and reverse position when there is most liquidity and best prices poses very good R/R.
    Once again, I was not to toot my own horn, I've been trading for almost 20 years and I would not care less if I am known or not ( and I don't post avg 5 post per day - I have better things to do with my life), what I DO care about - is sharing my knowledge ( for better or worse ) and trying to help beginning traders to avoid pitfalls I did not - because I had none to teach me ( An dI am still learning).
    Thank you for intelligent reply which adds value to this discussion.
  7. ammo


    problems i have with those mrkt tops and bottoms is i load up there with expectations of great returns,and if wrong it's usually a big hit,the other problem is everyone is extremely bullish or bearish at those points and it is the hardest time mentally to be a contrarian
  8. DavidDT


    will take it into consideration,
    although have to point out - I am not "redirecting" to PAID site and not profiting in any way - just think that for the purpose of this discussion it is better not to replicate text of referred URLs ( losing time stamps and therefore - credibility), but just let fellow traders to judge by themselves after visiting URLs.
    Thank you
  9. Good heavens TZ, I had no idea that violating item#6 was such a serious matter and carried such a harsh penalty.

    The mere thought of having one's account suspended should bring any errant behaviour into line very quickly.

  10. DavidDT


    Ammo :)
    That is why they call it "The Hard Trade" - I personally, would never try to catch reversal with outright stock position, only with leverage and predetermined loss of options, but that is just same ole me.
    Thou, have to admit, having started to build long calls XLF/RKH position 2 days before reversal ( completed Wednesday morning) and seen trade balance go down over 30% is not for everybody, and I will be lying if I said I was totally convinced.
    But, as of Friday close 260% + return eases the pain

    It is interesting that most good traders can make living trading with discipline, but only few can amass a fortune by taking calculated risks.
    #10     Jul 20, 2008