How to calculate success rate of our trading strategy?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rajesheck, Jun 2, 2023.

  1. If you are able to identify a trend early you will be ahead of most market participants.

    A trend will be easy to spot once it is formed and confirmed, but to spot it early that is a different matter. That different that I doubt that you will be able to do it.

    When I mean you I mean everyone. There are countless papers about trend forecasting and most of them are public just because they fail to be accurate. That is a extremely difficult task to achieve.
     
    #11     Jun 2, 2023
    MarkBrown, murray t turtle and rb7 like this.
  2. First of all thanks for sharing your view which also happens to be most popular view of traders.

    I identify early trend based on two aspects:
    1. Market opening OR trend reversal
    2. Early support/resistance

    My approach is simple and clear.

    From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
     
    #12     Jun 2, 2023
  3. The topic I am presenting here is a broad statistical analysis of the general strategy "trade with the trend".
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2023
    #13     Jun 2, 2023
  4. I understand "early" is a bit vague. Here is my explanation...

    I identify early trend based on two aspects:
    1. Market opening OR trend reversal
    2. Early support/resistance

    My approach is simple and clear.

    From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
     
    #14     Jun 2, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. By arbitrage do you mean options hedging ?
     
    #15     Jun 2, 2023
  6. I understand your question is "Do you have data to support your claim"

    I am presenting a broad statistical analysis of the general strategy "trade with the trend".
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2023
    #16     Jun 2, 2023
  7. Identifying the trend early is not easy part but a disciplined part

    I identify early trend based on two aspects:
    1. Market opening OR trend reversal
    2. Early support/resistance

    My approach is simple and clear.

    From my experience I learned simple and clear steps makes things work better.
     
    #17     Jun 2, 2023
  8. The art of copy-pasting replies! That doesn't go well with the ones that read the whole thread.
     
    #18     Jun 3, 2023
    MarkBrown likes this.
  9. Sometimes different questions leads to same answer. I just responded with common sense. And of course i cannot make everyone happy.

    Simple and clear steps is my philosophy. So copy paste comes as a side effect with my responses.

    And yes trading is both art and science. Art is creativity. It needs creative visualisation to see the big picture of trading as a business skill.

    Business skill is a blend of intelligence (IQ) and emotional intelligence (EQ). Business mindset means healthy relationship with money. Ofcourse MBA is not mandatory for business success.

    It is speculated that 98% of traders loose money, probably because of lack of business skill or in other words throwing away money in the name of investment which is definitely not a healthy relationship with money.

    After a decade of trading experience i realised that i need to improve my relationship with money. This thread is my reflection/wisdom on how to respect our investment while trading. This approach of early detection of trend reduces the frequency of stop loss hits. I call it respecting our investment.

    Probably only 2% of traders may see/appreciate what i am sharing here. I am wondering what percentage of traders are in transition from 98% crowd to 2% club? Because i am one of those who completed the transition.

    The bottom line is trading is a business skill and definitely not a gambling skill. Majority of traders have gambling mindset which is very dangerous to their investment. And i cannot expect gamblers to respect my business point of view. Right?
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2023
    #19     Jun 3, 2023
  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    ok i declare this thread officially DEAD.... any post after this is just wasting time.
     
    #20     Jun 3, 2023