How to calculate probabilities?

I think you need to be more clear, which probabilities are you talking about? Risk-neutral?

 

You mean thanks for the link that was provided nearly 5 years ago?

 

Hi MGJ, how do I obtain the value sigma in the description it mentions volatility or do I sum list of close prices?, and for the T value I want to change to lower time frame like T=14 5min bar/288 5min bar in a day