How to best prepare for black swan & other catastrophic events

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by Worldcrusher, Apr 9, 2008.

  1. The Vix is an excellent suggestion. I watch it closely for my other trading, but have never traded it directly. I will investigate it further. Once again, the biggest question is how much is this "insurance" going to eat into the fund's performance. Thanks!

    Daryl
     
    #11     Apr 9, 2008
  2. buy puts
     
    #12     Apr 9, 2008
  3. I've recently started using puts that are 10% away from the market. You have to have enough gain in your other trades to overcome these costs, obviously.

    While I initially never expected to get any of the costs of the puts back, assuming they'd just decay to zero, I've found that if the last trade before expiry that I have is a short position, I can then sell the puts with a few days left on them, and recover some costs, which was a pleasant surprise. But I don't count on that, and most of the time it doesn't happen.

    I don't worry about sudden upside moves, even though I may be short. I believe I can exit those in time without protection. (I use really wide stops)

    You could also look at adding trading in gold, which has a low correlation to the Naz. Contracts are liquid, and options are available. I'm moving in that direction myself, for the same reason.
     
    #13     Apr 9, 2008
  4. Chanelops,

    I have looked at Gold before for the same reasons. However, I did not pursue it, because many traders feel that the relationship between gold (and oil as well) and the markets has significantly changed and historical correlation is no longer pertinent. I am not stating this as a fact, because I honestly don't know if this is true or not. In either case, I am watching the two markets and giving them some time.

    Thanks for the suggestions.

    Sincerely,
    Daryl
     
    #14     Apr 9, 2008

  5. I presume your strategy is the naked selling of index premium.

    Savvy investors will have little interest in your product.

    Zero sum.
     
    #15     Apr 9, 2008
  6. Insurance = puts
     
    #16     Apr 9, 2008
  7. wave

    wave

  8. eraci

    eraci

    To better prepare for a black swan, I'd pay top dollars for an advanced prosumer DSLR camera - a black swan is rare luck to run into :) I'll take a full 4GB memory card load of photos...

    Not sure about other catastrophic events...
     
    #18     Apr 9, 2008
  9. If this is the case, then Pabst is right. The other problem you'll have is that you have found a niche play that works well, but can not be a stand-alone strategy. For you to attempt to construct a portfolio around this strategy requires you to be an expert in portfolio theory and quantitative analysis. I assume this is not your forte, so your best bet would be to attempt to join a multi strat fund .
     
    #19     Apr 9, 2008
  10. wave

    wave

    Build your HEAT threshold into your risk plan and then calculate your what-ifs and figure out how to make the most money with the lowest equity volatility.
     
    #20     Apr 9, 2008