How strong will dollar have to be?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by polpolik, Nov 14, 2005.

  1. This is ridiculous. I think the deficit is more alarming than battling inflation at this point in time. But that's just me.

    Japan doesn't want a strong yen
    Europe is in shambles and so is their currency.
  2. Yes, it is just you. The consensus is not about what is or is not alarming. It's about R+R. Rates and repatriation.

    Maybe very early next year, after the HIA is done and there are no more repatriation flows propping the dollar, and rates are seen getting ready to pause, the market will return to the focus that you are on. Maybe. But until then, don't expect it.
  3. I figured as much. I'm not sure if there will be another sharp fall. I'm betting some money on this that the dollar is topping out against the yen. Of course, my stop will make sure I don't get stupid with this gamble.

    Of course, I read somewhere that the dollar shorts are alarmingly high and it's scary.
  4. Chood


    Another board member, mtzianos, enlightened me as to why dollar is making up so much ground on Yen -- a result, primarily, of gusher of EZ money in Japan (lent effectively at zero interest) versus tightening in the USA.

    Previously, I -- like many others -- believed current accounts and in-flows to Japanese equities would bid Yen over the buck. Not so. Accordingly, I'm forex sidelined until something different takes place in interest rates.
  5. yeah, i guess Japanese buying of US debt quadrupled or something. Plus, it looks like political pressure is forcing BoJ to not raise rates.

    I'll hold on just a bit longer until it triggers my stops.
  6. It doesn't help that much of the Nikkei buying is done by foreigners, who then hedge their currency. Note a rising Nikkei actually correlates with a depreciating Yen, and vice versa.
  7. ...sell 119.90, take profit 119.09, 118.39 & 117.88...
  8. ...first target (close 119.13), stop loss 119.97...
  9. ...second target (close 118.46), stop loss 119.43 etc...
  10. ...addition - sell 118.88, stop loss 119.43...
    #10     Nov 28, 2005