Both are factored in. I think it's a pretty average expectancy? Commissions aren't much on a decent account.
The simple part is the turns: any fucking idiot can see those. The HARD part is forecasting the PERSISTENCE of the turns. That's why trading screens tend to evolve to complicated multiple and possibly redundant representations of time, price and volume.
I don't use indicators. I don't really use charts. I remember testing lots of ideas. Lots of things work, but I can not convince myself of a clear advantage.
Question for JMowery1987: I was wondering about this as well. You said that on AAPL you were looking for 3-5 cents. How far from your entry do you place your stop loss.? thanks
go to 30 min chart instead of 1 min and your life will slow down and your fun should pick up and your trading will improve......forget what u leave on the table........it ain't your table.....we only catch the crumbs from the rich man's table......
Thank you for your response. From the information you provided, I concluded that you are doing 12 trades a year per stream of capital that you are trading. As far as the profit per trade, I didn't work hard enough to get the answer from what you provided. I recommend that you consider trading more frequently with a shorter hold and go for half the profits presented. The compounding multiplier from 10% and 35 cycles per year is 28.1 times the initial capital at the beginning of the year. There are many ways to make money and they yield a spectrum of results. I haven't heard, so far of any complicated ways of making money on anything. There may be complicated ways that do not make much money, however. The list of ETer's doing this poor thing is very long. The side of the spectrum that makes the highest money velocities (which are "unbeleivable to a large part of the other money makers in the spectrum) seems to focus more and more on the potential that the market is offering. What this comes down to in order of importance is about three major considerations: 1. Stock selection. 2. Monitoring data sets that specifically provide timing by the use of leading indicators that sequence. 3. A proper routine for trading 4. Choosing the proper fractal for the variation in price movement. So from the above it is clear that there are no considerations of simplicity or complexity really on the table. Say I picked 10 of the airheads on ET and funded their air travel and put them up at a destination resort, locally, that could work on their health and attitudes. Suppose I gave them accounts and sat them down day after day with four screens each that were set up by a geek. A trained person would set up their screens and this would include the Universe, the hot list, the tenured list and a blank list for stocks to be owned. Around 10:15 to 11:00 they would begin to fill one stream of capital (I provide the capital) per day for 5 days. On day 4 they would begin to do an delete (sell) and an add (buy) for one stream a day. All of this based on oral instructions given to them by local mentors who are also trading their own capital. In the evening they would spend about 30 minutes getting the lists updated for the next day. They would stay on site for a bout 40 days of trading and take with them the initial capital I gave them and I would have my intial capital still in the 10 local trading accounts. They would commit to giving a % of their future earnings to local organizations that are solving local problems and they would commit to training some others in their locality. You can see that there is nothing that is not simple in the example. 1. is done in the evening using canned web sites. 2. Monitoring is simple primarily because of the leading signals of price and that the four screens are displaying data sets for everything that is owned, hot, and there are lists for the universe and for the tenured (stocks that are traded over and over (NTRI @30% four times so far this year)) and the universe. All of this is posted daily in advance on ET as you all know. The screen set up is posted as well and has been for a few years. 3. The four part routine is basically done in 30 minutes in the evening and the timely decision making is done from 10:15 to 11:00 or so based upon two columns on the lists. 4. is EOD charts mostly and it is possible to use a 30 min chart along side the daily to see the buy and sell signals in another annotated format. Making 50K a week on 25 ES contracts is a little different. There is no evening work and no lists and you only have to view two screens and use items 2, 3, and 4, the same way as for stocks. the event that occurs for stocks at a given time occurs 20 to 40 times a day by following the same four part routine. This hasn't been done on ET by anyone primarily because of the continuing AGM type hostility that ET services to get hits. The win/win of this kind of process is that it enables communities to broaden their support for solving problems. Why do the airheads on ET not take the deal? Because I do not offer it simply because I cannot get these people to see anything about the efficacy of trading to make what the market is offering them. Who does the process I suggest. So far only 10 of thousands of people who spread the process out and use their own money. However, none of them are airheads. What makes an airhead an airhead? Mostly it is thinking that there is or are shortcuts. Airheads think they can find shortcuts for what other are perfectly willing to give them. Aitheads cannot think either. They lock themselves into all the personal garbage that they have collected and fight the world to not give up all their myths and misunderstandings. There is no airhead in ET, so far, who has ever once thought that using a Universe of stocks that all exhibit the same high beta characteristics IS THE ONLY POSSIBLE UNIVERSE TO CONSIDER TRADING.
Fine, so make your generous offer to 10 non-airheads you have identified here at ET, and the rest of us airheads will await their report upon the completion of the process. Kindly let us know which airline(s) they will be using and the resort where they will be residing. Oh, the anticipation is palpable!
As a reality check, let me point out that anyone who is posting during RMH is automatically suspect. The market tends to turn precisely when you turn away from it, as seasoned daytraders know so well (big midday breakouts always occur when a nationwide sensor network detects a reduction in water pressure). I am posting only as a public service, and because my volume test and my volatility tests tell me to stand aside (of course I just ignored all three and tick fucked for three NQ ticks).