How could I be anything other than a free market guy as a Ron Paul supporter? As a supporter, I've donated to his campaign several times. To me, that's the best way to bet on Ron Paul because the money helps his campaign to get the message out. Even if he loses, the message spreads so it's kind of a win win. Conversely, if I bet on him winning, and he loses, the message I support gains nothing. See where I'm going with this? So, it's not about the payoff...it's about being smart with my money and using it where it does the most good. I am not naive enough to believe Ron Paul is a lock (like I've stated many times before). Far from it...the entire political establishment is dead set against him . Let's face it, he is the only candidate telling the truth and in a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act. That is quite a bit to overcome, but it can be overcome. If Ron Paul somehow wins the GOP nomination or truly works a miracle and wins as an independent or Libertarian, that's all the payoff I need...you can keep your 20 to 1. Now, for you folks sitting on the sidelines without a dog in the fight, go have fun at intrade or with whoever else takes bets.
That's kind of a weak response. I never said you thought he was a lock, I brought up intrade to back up my argument. You keep claiming the man is keeping him down. Yet the free market is pricing Ron Paul right about where I have him, as a longshot. I have a dog in the fight. His name is ABO.
I think you are fighting a losing battle trying to explain this. It seems that any time you try to get in to an argument with someone on this site about odds, they just dont get it, or they choose to ignore it.
ABO eh? Last time you said you didn't and you would probably end up voting third party. Do you recall that convo? Also, the free market IS factoring in the "man", as you put it, keeping him down. He may be a long shot, mostly due to the media conspiracy to marginalize his campaign, but long shots hit all the time.
That's absurd. The market seeks value. If Paul is truly being manipulated lower, then buyers would recognize that and buy what they perceived as an undervalued asset. That's how trading works DAS.
Are you talking about the market in it's current form or a free market? Because if you are talking about the market in it's current form that was hilarious. Perhaps the disconnect here is I have no idea (and don't care to know) how I could place a wager on Ron Paul at Intrade, what's involved, how it works, or any other part of your Intrade pitch. Also, I am not surprised the "market" sees Paul with less value because he would be the last candidate to take tax payer dollars and bail out any part of it. Remember, we don't have a truly free market.
DAS. I'm going to speak to you like a 5 year old from now on. I live in a dark blue state. Because of that, my vote is wasted to the Democratic machine here, hence why I support the 3rd party. When I said I have a dog in this fight, it means I will "voice" my support for ABO. Whether that be on this forum or with people I speak with in public. In the voting booth, my vote is lost therefore I support the 3rd party cause. It's not complicated DAS. It really isn't.
Max, it blows my mind that on a site about trading that so few people understand logic, probability, odds and statistics. I mean this is not a bodybuilder forum, it's a trading forum. LOL.
While many liberals will vote for Paul due to his anti war,anti- corporate welfare ,anti patriot act,anti TSA molestations,and drug positions most of his support is from republicans Democrats get the majority of the black,hispanic,jewish,women and union vote.Due to past allegations of racism,Pauls abortion stance,no support for Isreal and anti immigration stances he will not get nearly as many votes from democrats as he will from republicans.If Paul runs 3rd party Obama easily wins re election.I doubt he will though