Discussion in 'Trading' started by lojze, Jun 2, 2009.
How ended recessions in year 2002 or earlier? Or to say the other way: What was the way out of it?
Create a new bubble
1) recessions typically have increasingly short life spans (historically). The length of recessions has been decreasing historically on average (while expansion durations have been increasing).
2) they do not always end the same way.
There is no exact measurement to gauge the end in hindsight, however, generally, low interest rates, pumping money into the economy, and forward optimism (often war as well) seemed to be common elements to the end of prior recessions.
earnings surprises. it usually has to do with psychology.
Yeah except at that time no one was counting on a new bubble to improve the economy. It was the end of the good times for good. Now we know we have new bubbles coming to bail us out.
BUY BUY BUY ! as would say the CNBC clown
btw when did the current recession start exactly.
Supposedly it should last between 7 to 12 months, the length of past recessions
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research the official start of the recession was December 2007.
The The last expansion lasted 73 months and prior expansion lasted 120 months. The average expansion since the end of World War II has lasted 57 months. The typical postwar recession has lasted 10 months.
The only way out of this recession will be probably to create another bubble. Where the next bubble is going to be is still in question, I just don't understand why so many are against a recession, its part of the economic cycle and trying to print our way out of these problems and bring down interest rates to historical lows is not the answer. As you can see the amount of months on average we have gone through a period of expansion has been 57 months vs only a 10 month average period of recession. This recession that is occurring now is different than any other ever experienced, anyone thinking the economy will come roaring back like it always does after a short term drop in the economy will be proven wrong. Pumping TRILLIONS of dollars into the economy and believing its going to create a sustained cycle of economic prosperity to me is creating a false promise of economic growth.
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