How on earth are the indicies markets all so extremely bullish??!

plyka · Nov 9, 2011

Quote from galvinlee888:

I am going to tell you guys one of the biggest secret in the brokage or trading world, I don't care if they will close or ban me from this site eventually .. All the points that you mention above, will require a lot of $$ to pratice, and by the time u realised they are still not working, you already paid dearly to your mentors, subscriptions, brokers, your won time, relationship and etc .For "them", it is "done" for you when you either get broke or give up at that time(they already squuze all you get and "max" their return), and they will look for new blood.

A good & consistent return from investment will generally yield a reasonable 10-20% return, anything beyond this return is merely gambling, remember risk and reward come hand to hand. Sometime I want to laugh when i see someone with 10K account doing the ES Future, most of them gone in less than a year. Most of them have some amateur strategy (based on some tea leaf indicator or TA) that may work for a short while due to certain market condition (up, down or sideway) but get burst when the market condition change.

Let say you need 100K/year to sustain your life style, you need at least nearly a million in your account to make this (10% return a year). Not many people here have this amount of money, I am a bit lucky as I worked with one of the firm before (the most famous one) and I manage to save some good $$ through the bonus (by not get tempted to buy those expensive toys during big bonus time, still taking the public transport to work). I also lucky as I also has the chance to learn what the so call "profitable real trading/approach" vs those snake oil trading (as 99% of ET here did) during my time there. I leave the place eventually as I have issue with my boss. Now I just use the money that I save to generate a decent living and will not look back to my old jobs (too stress and too many politics)
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Anything over 10%-20% is "gambling?" LOL. Keep telling yourself that. The truth of the matter is that most traders are losers, but some are very good and they use a variety of different systems. Just because 10-20% is all you can make with what you refer to as manageable risk, doesn't mean that this is the limit for everyone. Don't think that you have all the answers because you don't. Just because you don't experience something doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. You are trying to prove a negative here, which is simply not possible. The individual who has experienced better gains than 10%-20% can prove it, the individual who cannot, well, cannot.

TILT2 · Nov 9, 2011

To OP:
Ask Fed and you might get the answer.

MADASINHATTER · Nov 9, 2011

Quote from Rabbitone:

I agree with you that sound debate on ET can yield excellent results. So let us go back to some of the comments you made that set this thing off:
- Personally i've always found nodoji posts highly irritating.
- What never ceases to amaze me is the never ending line of puppy dogs thanking her profusely and hoping to be sprinkled with the holy water. Don't worry folks the website,trading room and cd are all in the pipeline.

Debate and opinion on ET IMO should be used in the context of trading methods. But In these words above I heard nothing that sounded like a debate or an opinion about the context of her trading methods. These came across clearly as attacks on her and those who listen to her. That is where I started from.

On the other hand I agree that if her skill level that has developed so that she can spot a failed breakout of 2 or 3 ticks it is a stretch of any imagination. I wish her luck on doing it consistently.

I also agree with you it is extremely difficult to talk about how to trade without specifying insight. I have backed down many times in PMs in the last six years because ETers want me to unlock a single sentence I wrote into extensive trading lessons. But to go further would have lead to an avalanche of questions and given my insights all away.

Trading is more simple than people state in these posts. But it is next to impossible to explain to people how a brain can be programmed and conditioned to execute trades correctly each time using a simple set of rules.
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I could have rephrased my initial remarks i guess,i think i said though that being provocative often forces people to show their true colours.She responded well,and in this post so have you.I'd actually feel very flattered if someone defended me as you did her.
Your last paragraph..eventually you stop doing the wrong things and start doing the right things...or you go broke...hardest part.

TILT2 · Nov 9, 2011

Thanks, Fed. You have given fairness and independence back to the market.

canuckrookie · Nov 9, 2011

Quote from Jgills:

It could be that everyone is overlooking what underlies the market indicies. In the case of the U.S. (S&P500) companies in the United States are posting great earnings for the environment we are in. This is forcing the equity bulls out of hiding and they start buying things up, especially when they think its cheap. Of course we still see the euro-nonsense, thats in everyones eyes, and has been.

Think about what the market would do if the euro problem was solved tomorrow. It would most likely sky rocket, but we know it won't be solved tomorrow, so instead we get a slow movement upward as the public believes less and less that we will enter armageddon. Then finally, the eurozone problem is fixed, and the market sells off, then everyone says "wtf itz fixed nz nows we has de sell off. wtf"

You need to be ahead of the curve if you're eyes are going to be on the bigger prize. If you're day trading the ES, why do you care about underlying conditions? underyling conditions aren't making or breaking your day trade, unless you are in a position with enormous event risk and the event is about to take place.
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Theres the pesky fact that the US deficit is also near 100% debt to gdp levels and its clear that almost all the US politicians have no willingness to actually tackle that problem. However unlike Euroland they have the FED and their inflation toolbox. Also keep hearing how cheap the mulitples are on us bluechips, but with a worldwide economic environment with such bad visibility those multiples might end up being very fair.

murray t turtle · Nov 9, 2011

Partial Quote from spanish89:

When the S&P was down at 1,100 no-one wanted tobuy...

Whilst i know the the markets are often illogical,
what on earth could be driving all this extreme bullishness??
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I am not bullish on Greece;
not bullish on BAC.................planty of bear trends

But as the Stock Traders Almanac of 2001 notes ;
good time to buy tek stocks... stong seasonals/buy ............. SPY is buy on 1 year candlecharts, even though its below 200ema,below 10ema barely.Wisdom is profitable.

So i say SPY is a buy;
not a good buy, not did i buy SPY.
Prefer higher probability buys

deadbroke · Nov 10, 2011

Quote from spanish89:

Whilst i know the the markets are often illogical,
what on earth could be driving all this extreme bullishness??

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For the ultimate bullish sign watch this cat - when you see this you know that the cliff is coming up soon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ivU9_YI7sY