Spoken like a true pro, seriously! I never mind missing a move or the market turning around a pip after I'm stopped out, "he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day!" (Still would have been darn nice to catch the top of this though!)
What's amazing to me is that there are NO bounces during the last two weeks or so. And the same huge relentless moves are happening in crude, grains, metals etc etc. Not that it matters to trading successfully but I just don't "get it" USD was basing for the last 3+months yet NONE of these dollar bears were lightening up? And I can understand the initial declines but it seems like a lot of the recent drops are still liquidation of longs NOT shorting. Why would you be down 500-1000 PIPS from the top and getting out NOW?
Really, you think it's mostly longs covering and an avalanche of stops being hit? There must be some shorts in there somewhere, like you say 500-1000 pips is one helluva stop, even the most stubborn dollar bears must have got the hint by now! If you're right and it is just longs liquidating and there is all that cash waiting to enter the market where will that put Eur/Usd :eek:
I just think that if there was a substantial amount of shorting (I'm sure there is SOME shorting ) on this decline we would have bounced at least ONCE on some sharp short covering rallies. Who knows...I was looking to buy in the hope of a bounce but I see zero signs that there will be one. I just can't remember the last time so many instruments declined with so little in the way of pullbacks.
I was short EUR/JPY, and it went against me hard over night early this week. So unlike some here, I double down on the trade, and had no hard stop. I ended up making money on the trade, decent money, normal range money, but of course did not stay in for the insane money that some of you probably got. However, I am sure there were those that did the opposite of me, doubled or tripled down on their EUR/JPY long thinking they were going to wipe me out, and got their souls ripped out instead.
For me, good thing this doesn't happen to often. I was on the wrong side of eur/usd at 5300 just when I was getting in a grove. It was like looking at a beautiful woman, then someone squirts vinegar in your eyes, then she says look, im naked! I didn't see this big a drop comming. And my indicators didn't indicate that!
Took one on the chin today... Long @ 5300 CME 6E took a thrashing on the run down and noticed substantial differences between CME 6E and Dukascopy EUR/USD pair... At various times CMS 6E was in the 14975 - 15000 range while EUR/USD was at 15030+. EUR/USD had various checkups where it was possible to square up and exit profitably... 6E tanked with only one or two small checkups. Any other observations on the price and interactions between 6E and EUR/USD?
Why would you be expecting the markets to bounce? Most of the real breakout moves had room to run forever. Take the EUR/USD -- no real resistance AT ALL between 1.49-1.54. I lost 10-15 pips here and there when the pound and franc consolidated for a few hours, but other than that i made several hundred on at least 4 separate pairs (I left sell and buy stops with targets and stops when I went to bed, and woke up 70% up on my account, over the 40% I made during the day yesterday -- I couldn't even figure out where all the money came from -- I only trade $400 on every $1000 in my account, with 100:1 margin). The ONLY time I lost more than 15 pips was when the Euro Dollar bounced at 1.50 instead of 1.49 (round number profit taking I guess), but I still made 200%+ on that trade when I realized after I realized what was happening and exited. I have another sell stop at 1.4991, my guess is I make another 80 pips there with 25 at risk. From the charts, it looks like there are about 1-2 big runs like this per year. Is this about right? I saw like 5 in the past 4 years on the Euro, and 8 on the pound. Also: why do currencies gap? Different exchanges opening?
excerpted commentary from dailyfx website -August 8th, 2008 will be known for two events: the start of the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the massive, bullish breakout for the US dollar. The currency made its move across the board, taking out significant technical (and psychological) levels against most of its major counterparts and marking its biggest one-day advance on a trade-weighted basis in over five years.- here is a bloomberg headline -Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate -
I would trust the 5-year statistic. Most financial news places do it by net gain loss instead of percent gain loss (sounds more exciting). So if oil went up from 130 to 142 (there was a move like this, but not exactly this) the 12 point move was the biggest ever, even if it would be less than a move from 50 to 56. I'm guessing the trade-weighted numbers took this into account.