okay...I can show you a number of "higher highs" for the ES...but the ES tanked today...how can you explain that strategy today???...many HH happened but did not identify trend...
<i>"Why do you need ma's to define trend? It either is making lower lows and lower highs or higher highs and higher lows or it isn't. No MA's necessary."</i> On any intraday chart, what did the ES do today between 11:30am and 1:30pm EST? Higher lows, higher highs and potential double-bottom. Now, those points are always relevant: highs and lows compared to what? Session extremes? Most recent 1,2,3 swings? A lot of trend days are interspersed with wedges or flags that appear to be higher high - lower low reversal points. And, reversal days often look like budding trend days until these same patterns blossom. Highs and lows are too relative a term. Any definition of such can be shown countless examples of where they failed and reversed. * All of the energy was downside, all day. Lifts were feeble, drops had all the emphasis. Plenty of tech-analysis tools confirmed downside trend intact, although at some point a -42 point decline is tough to keep shorting into. Nevertheless, long was wrong all day. If longs were taken, had to keep your head on a swivel with those sell signals measuring next potential entry at all times.
okay...I can show you a number of "higher highs" for the ES...but the ES tanked today...how can you explain that strategy today???...many HH happened but did not identify trend
I would agree. Plus, the past 2 trading sessions, we saw a strong sell off only to see market rally strong to almost form a hammer. This thought is what kept me from going full on short this market today.
Yes, today I took a number of longs and got wacked on most of them for the YM. I tried to take small profits, but by the time i could hit the sell button it was already moving against me. Shorts worked well of course.
The higher highs took place during midday. Often on trend days (both uptrend and downtrend) there will be a countertrend rally during that time. If the rally gets legs, the market could go back up to the day's highs, where it might get smacked back down. But if and when that rally fails, look out below. Today that rally obviously failed. Once that happened, new lows were in the cards. Look back at my generalizations. It's in there (consolidation, continuation). As for the day, there were really only two higher highs. The third attempt was a double top that was quickly sold around 12:45. And that was the end of the rally.
Stock futures and earnings disapointments as well as $90 Oil and Gold on the rise and bonds on the drop all said this was going to be a VERY strong down day. All you had to do is buy 20-200 contracts of the ES and watch the money roll in. If you have noticed, when the markets have a real strong up or down day in the last 6 months, the SPX/ES has moved 30-40pts every time. I dont even bother with sideways day alot of the time, wait for strong 20-40pt days and move in and thank the market for the money!