ET has members who consider themsleves talented linguists. So they post stuff that allows me to see their status.
There is a psychological windew with four panes. One pane is devoted to what people do NOT know that they do NOT know about thmeselves. When this comes into play in trading, they are unable to asess the quality of what they think they are seeing. Under this context no trading is possible. So the test to use for doing trades is to only use profits for trading. I takes three steps to gain this initial footing: 1. Start with a small amount of capital. and begin to trade with one contract of one round lot. 2. Double your initial capital following a completely define approach in a disciplined manner. 3. Remove the intial capital and NEVER use any other capital for trading EXCEPT what is in your account. If you are able to grow capital trading, gradually you will learn more about what you do not know you do not know. As you profile stands right now, I do not believe you will make it in trading. Probably the only alternative for you is to get a skilled mentor. Most mentors will not take on people who will not make it. Spending time is a very expensive proposition.
To answer your question, don't we need to know how much we will lose, relative to the "nice profit" we'll get if we win, if the loss occurs? i.e., is it a 5% chance of a "nice loss" or of a very small loss or a very large loss?
Good point. In fact any trader who loses more than 10% on any given trade (or trades) is a freaking idiot, period.