Unless new construction comes to a halt for an extended period of time I doubt the next turn up in real estate will be a bull market. Lending standards are back to normal with most people having to put 20% down, and that will keep the growth moderate after a bottom is established IMO. I would not pay anything for the indicator, as I'll make my own analysis. Once an upturn comes real estate stocks will probably be a better investment that real estate.
I can already tell you the best indicator. But, the reality is that the bull won't return in until people can qualify for the houses in which they live. Then the tradeup market can return.
interesting question, I guess it would depend on how much credit I could scoop up knowing about the duration with almost certainty would probably be worth more, pyramiding 8 years compared to 5 makes a huge difference