The entire U.S. economy diving for the ground at full throttle due to failed government policy. 'Never tanked this fast': Experts stunned by 'horrific' consumer sentiment numbers https://www.rawstory.com/trump-recession-2671751394/ Consumer sentiment over the last month plunged to levels not seen since the Great Recession more than 15 years ago. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, "a closely watched index of consumer sentiment nosedived to 50.8 in April from 57 last month, continuing a recent downward trend stoked by concerns about trade, jobs and inflation." As if that weren't bad enough, the Journal notes that consumers' inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7 percent, which is the highest recorded since 1981. Economics journalists and analysts expressed astonishment at the plunge in consumer sentiment, which occurred before the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs has taken full effect. "Horrendous," Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal commented on BlueSky. "Worse than I imagined honestly," wrote Washington Post economics reporter Jeff Stein on X. "Consumer sentiment is imploding," commented financial services firm Renaissance Macro Research. "Importantly, consumers see a negative supply shock. Inflation expectations have jumped while employment expectations have plunged. Not great, Bob!" University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers put the numbers into historical context and remarked, "Consumer sentiment has never tanked this far, this fast." Financial Times data journalist Ray Douglas added that the dive in consumer sentiment was not merely a reflection of partisan Democrats expressing their disapproval with President Donald Trump. "This decline spanned the political spectrum, with Democrats, Republicans and independents all reporting weaker sentiment," he observed. (More at above url)
No President is recent history has sunk the U.S. economy faster than Trump. US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952 https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april/index.html
I read on financialjuice on x that Trump had told CEOs that he was anticipating a pivot on tariffs. And the FED also announced they are ready to step in if needed. It sounds like verbal intervention but just a heads up for anyone who wants to short.
To even ask such a questions shows lack of understanding on what tariffs will accomplish and getting illegals out of the country will accomplish. Yes, there will be a transition period (likely a couple of years maybe three then the economy will roar back stronger than ever.) By the time Trumps term is up our economy will be in a boom. Maybe they can find a way for him to get 4 more years (a third term) to the chagrin of all the naysayers and then it will be some kind blastoff for the economy.
BlackRock’s Larry Fink says U.S. is very close to a recession and may be in one now https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/bla...ose-to-a-recession-and-may-be-in-one-now.html
what ignorance. No recession. Period. Just a transition to a huge boom that comes once or twice in a lifetime. Heads up boys. Fly to the sky. Don't look back. Doesn't anyone have any idea what the institutions are up to? They aren't ignorant. They prey on our ignorance. Good grief! I ain't falling for it. So much blabbing.
Fed's Waller warns high tariffs could push inflation near 5% while economy slows 'to a crawl' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds...while-economy-slows-to-a-crawl-180032161.html Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller warned Monday that inflation could surge this year near 5% and economic growth could "slow to a crawl" if the effective tariff rate remains at 25%. He believes the central bank may need to cut interest rates to prevent a recession. The reason to ease monetary policy in that scenario is that a surge in tariff-related inflation could in fact be "temporary," which would allow Waller to "look through it and determine policy based on the underlying trend." The Fed governor anticipates the impact on growth and employment could be longer lasting. "I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022," he noted Monday while delivering a speech in St. Louis, referring to a period when policymakers wrongly predicted that inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic would turn out to be transitory. "But just because it didn't work out once does not mean you should never think that way again." Fed officials are grappling with how to respond to President Trump's aggressive slate of new tariffs, with a debate underway about which side of the central bank's dual mandate will be more important to protect in the coming months: maximum employment or stable prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that the Fed should consider any inflation produced by tariffs to be temporary. Fed Chair Jay Powell initially agreed with that view, saying his baseline scenario was that inflation from tariffs would prove "transitory." But he has since backed away from that stance, saying that "it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent” as the economy digests "significantly larger-than-expected" trade duties. Some other Fed policymakers have also said they worry the price changes could be longer lasting instead of temporary. Waller on Monday outlined two different scenarios describing how things may play out as a result of a new tariff policy that he called "one of the biggest shocks to affect the US economy in many decades." "Given that there is still so much uncertainty about how trade policy will play out and how businesses and households will respond, I have struggled, like many others I have talked with, to fit these varying possibilities into a single coherent view of the outlook." With a 25% tariff rate, Waller sees a "significant" increase in the unemployment rate. He noted higher prices from tariffs would reduce spending, and uncertainty about the pace of spending would deter business investment. "If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC's policy rate sooner and to a greater extent than I had previously thought," Waller said. He said that in that scenario, inflation could reach a peak close to 5% in the coming months if businesses quickly and completely pass through the cost of the tariffs. Even if the tariffs were only partially passed on to consumers, he said inflation could move up to around 4%. In a second potential scenario, Waller assumes that Trump's decision last week to pause steep "reciprocal" tariffs is the beginning of negotiations with other nations and would result in removing most of the import tariffs — thus reducing the effective tariff rate to 10%. Here Waller sees inflation around 3%, with growth still being hurt but to a lesser degree than with the 25% tariff rate. Under this scenario, Waller said preemptive rate cuts from the Fed last year give the central bank time to "wait and see" how the economy evolves. In this case, he said, "I would expect inflation to continue on its path down towards our 2% target. In this case, 'good news' rate cuts are very much on the table in the latter half of this year." He is not the only Fed official to warn of various outcomes. New York Fed president John Williams on Friday lowered his outlook for the US economy and raised his expectation for inflation this year. Williams now expects economic growth to slow this year to "somewhat below 1%" and inflation to rise to somewhere between 3.5% and 4%. He sees the unemployment rate rising to 5% due to the combination of a labor force slowdown resulting from reduced immigration and the uncertain effects of tariffs. Those estimates are significantly different from the median estimates released by all Fed officials at their policy meeting on March 19, when policymakers predicted GDP of 1.7% this year, inflation rising by 2.8%, and the unemployment rate ending the year at 4.4%.