Discussion in 'Trading' started by stock_trad3r, Oct 29, 2008.
How much upside? I vote 5%
I didn't include the possibility of a selloff because that won't happen.
Here is what I've learned over the many years: the probability of the market moving up or down in the following couple of hours from any level, at any time, is about 50%.
So you have never seen a sell-off following a rate cut? The commentators always explain it like this:"the fed cut it by 0.25 but the market expected a 0.75 cut..."
Since everybody knows, there is going to be a rate cut, it's already priced in. There are usually some wild swings for a couple of hours and then a lot of disappointment - meaning down.
Happy trading, Felix
That was many years ago when the market was much higher. For the past six or so fed meetings the fed as always cut as much as anticipated, and the market has always rallied, especially in the final 45 minutes.
Even if the rate cut is expected rate cuts ARE good news and a 50 basis point cut is a pretty substancial one.
Look at the post immediately above you. EVERYONE expects a rate cut it is inevitable and the worst kept secret. Don't you think people buying yesterday thought about the impending rate cut before buying?
Added a poll option to balance out the poll for those who believe there is no upside, but downside risk. Something ST would never think of.
Good now I could vote
Up we go..ohh yeaaaaa
Wierd, I must have bad data. I don't see up we go.
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