How much shold one risk in a single trade?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by epetrov, Apr 22, 2008.

  1. rosy2

    rosy2

    you never said what your starting capital is. think if it like poker and stack size, if you're short stacked wait for a good setup and bet it all.
     
    #41     Oct 3, 2010
  2. I agree with this one.
     
    #42     Oct 4, 2010
  3. Another answer: if you are a deep value investor, risk nothing. Only buy when the valuation is so cheap, and the finances sufficiently sound, that you almost can't lose money, short of WWIII or a meteorite wiping out the corporate HQ.

    Value investing is the only technique I am aware of where the lower the risk, the higher the return. So you should always aim for "virtually zero" risk on a value investment.
     
    #43     Oct 4, 2010
  4. Well, risk is also at the portfolio level. A 1% risk on 100 highly correlated positions, such as 100 long stock positions, is similar to a 50-90% risk on one single position.

    If you are risking 1% per trade and making say 3 times your risk on profitable positions, you only need about 10 trades a year to get a decent return. So in any given month you might only have 2-3 positions on. And 20% of the positions generate 80% of the returns, so you want to be risking more like 2-3% and occasionally more (e.g. 5%) on the very best positions you have in a given year.

    It might look like this:

    Top position: risk 3%, make 15% if right.
    2nd position: risk 2%, make 8% if right
    Positions 3-5: risk 1% each, make 3% each if right
    Positions 6-10: risk 0.5%, make 1.5% each if right

    Let's say your top two positions are winners, 2/3 of your 3-5 positions are winners, and half your 6-10 positions are winners. You just made 30% for the year.

    Let's say ALL your trades are losers. You are down 10.5% on the year and live to fight another day.

    If you are somewhere in between then you might make 10-20%.

    N.B. the risk is not the outright dollar value of the position, but the equity you will lose if the market hits your stop. Risk 1% doesn't mean only invest 1% in the market. It could mean invest 25% and place a stop 4% away from the current price.
     
    #44     Oct 4, 2010