How much is a good Stoploss system method worth?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by themickey, Oct 18, 2019.

  1. dozu888

    dozu888

    There is no such thing. If the stop does not produce random results then it must have an edge on the opposite side. Aka a holy grail.
     
    #31     Oct 20, 2019
  2. themickey

    themickey

    No such thing as what?
    A good stop loss system is definitely an edge, but holy grail, yup, no holy grail.
    There is no entry system in existence which is a holy grail, and neither an exit system.
    But, think about it, if you had a wonderful entry system but a poor exit system (clunky, time consuming, very limiting in application), you have nothing virtually. The best entry method in the world matched with a crap exit system = crap.
     
    #32     Oct 20, 2019
  3. themickey

    themickey

    One could say, many traders spend years discovering a good profitable system.
    So they devote considerable effort discovering how to analyse the markets.
    But if it takes years of blood sweat and tears getting to this point, they also need to spend resources on how to best be efficient in exiting. Pushing the buy button is easy, hitting the exit button is often painful.
     
    #33     Oct 20, 2019
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    mr dozu888
    ...sell the news, i like it, here's the quick and dirty search if anyone has the urge to take a glance into the idea. more and better related info posts welcome f'sure.

    meanwhile here's some q and d methodology

    I found one for intraday traders on youtube, so it's a pretty sure bet to work great!
    I found one for position traders on youtube, so it's double sure bet to work great!

    consideration for stops intraday.jpg
    consideration for stops position.jpg

    and one for the road

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    Search term: trade on events - e.g. enter 2 weeks before the Fed cut/ earning release/ trade deal signing

    Individual Investor Trading and Return Patterns around Earnings ...
    https://gates.comm.virginia.edu/uvafinanceseminar/Saar Paper 08.pdf
    around earnings announcements,. 2 and that returns are abnormally high (low) in ... We find that stocks that individuals bought in the ten days prior to the earnings ... small trades as proxies for the trades of individual investors (e.g., Lee (1992), ... relation between individual trading prior to the event and subsequent returns).

    The Stock Market Response to Earnings Announcements Released ...
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/2491122
    Section 2 describes why the market reactions to daytime and over- night announcements ... Similarly, for earnings released during trading hours on day t ("daytime" announce- ... big news events to provide a longer period of information dissemina- ..... ment date, scaled by stock price two days before the announcement date.

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    http://rkaniel.simon.rochester.edu/papers/earnings.pdf
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    http://www.fmaconferences.org/Boston/Trading_Behavior_around_Earnings_Announcements.pdf
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    https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/trading-earnings
    Mar 7, 2018 ... Please enter a valid email address ... A stock can move in response to an earnings report. ... Earnings season, which usually lasts a few weeks each quarter, is a period ... Before considering how you might trade a stock around an earnings ... For instance, if a trader is in a short-term long stock position (e.g., ...

    How Markets React to Earnings Announcements in the ... - CiteSeerX
    http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.425.4006&rep=rep1&type=pdf
    weeks, indicating the presence of a post–earnings announcement drift, ... characteristics which distinguish it from many developed and emerging markets (e.g., high .... Notes: Year of Trade, Number of investors present in the Saudi Stock Market, .... abnormal return across event observations from day 1 = −1 to day 2 ...

    Twitter sentiment around the Earnings Announcement events - Plos
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0173151
    Feb 24, 2017 ... On the day before the announcements, the Twitter volume is low, and ... of a stock on average, over several different events of the same type. ... and the reported valuation of a company in its earnings report. ..... Fig 2. Daily number of tweets (A) and trading volume (B) around the Earnings Announcements.

    The Earnings Announcement Return Cycle - American Economic ...
    https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2019/preliminary/paper/YrbKK6Zn
    ment and plot (1) the average market-adjusted returns (solid line) and (2) the percentage of positive ... running from two weeks before an announcement to a week after it, stocks continue to ... return; we report three-day moving averages of these returns. ... always announce their earnings exactly every 63 trading days.

    Company Earnings Calendar - Yahoo Finance
    https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings
    Results 1 - 18 of 18 ... Events Calendar for: ... Yahoo Finance•2 hours ago. Coca-Cola earnings — What to know in markets Friday. Beverage giant Coca-Cola will report quarterly results Friday. ... One way would be to spend days of research browsing through ... Coca-Cola is currently trading at a price-to-forward-earnings ratio ...

    Twitter sentiment around the Earnings Announcement events - NCBI
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5325598/
    Feb 24, 2017 ... This type of analysis is enabled by the “event study” methodology [15, 16], ... analysts and the reported valuation of a company in its earnings report. .... a query is specified by the stock cash-tag (e.g., “$MSFT” for Microsoft). Table 2 ... Consequently, the day 0 trading for the AfterClose announcements occurs ...

    3 Earnings Reports to Watch Next Week: PG, MSFT, and AMZN ...
    https://investorplace.com/2019/10/earnings-reports-to-watch-next-week-earnings-calendar/
    There will be earnings reports next week that might give a preview of next ... Active Trading ... Earnings Report Date: Tuesday, Oct. 22, before market open.

    Earnings Releases - Wilson Sonsini
    https://www.wsgr.com/attorneys/BIOS/PDFs/bochner0308.pdf
    Oxley Act. Both quarterly earnings press releases ... fiscal quarter and between 60 to 90 days follow- ... 2. (Nasdaq) and the New York Stock Exchange. (NYSE), have prompted issuers to ..... collects and analyzes financial data, coordinates input from CEO, ... (e.g., providing notice to insiders when the trading window opens.

    How to Listen to Earnings Conference Calls - TheStreet
    https://www.thestreet.com/story/10353956/1/how-to-listen-to-an-earnings-call.html
    Learn how to research and analyze earnings calls and transcripts for critical details. ... Step 2. Read the Earnings Release. Obtain a copy of the earnings release as ... as encouragement for shareholders - or, in the event of a disappointing quarter, ... pro-forma): While all companies must provide GAAP results (e.g., revenue), ...

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    Apr 18, 2018 ... turn volatility persists for at least four trading days after the announcement. .... (2015) find that earnings announcements released after market close receive ... around events (e.g., Bushee et al., 2011; Kirk and Markov, 2016; Matsumoto et .... Panel A of Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics for PO and PC ...

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    https://www.quora.com/Why-do-stocks-go-up-or-down-after-earnings
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    The Fed is likely to lower rates again this week - CNBC.com
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/fed-decision-expectations-rising-that-rate-cut-might-not-happen.html
    Sep 16, 2019 ... Traders in the fed funds futures market are pricing in a 34% chance that the ... VIDEO2:5302:53 ... it more difficult for the Fed to cut rates further,” said Beth Ann Bovino, ... “Investors have concluded that without the U.S.-China trade conflict, it's probably not likely that the Fed would be cutting rates at this point.

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    Sep 13, 2019 ... The Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but what it says ... Stocks were higher for the week and on Friday trading less than one ... That is well above the Fed's 2% target, but the Fed prefers to watch PCE ...

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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-s-evans-doesn-t-anticipate-another-rate-cut-for-2019-11569430349
    Sep 25, 2019 ... Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans said he entered the Fed's policy meeting last week thinking the two rate cuts already made this ... A slowing global economy and uncertainty over trade policy are ... Mr. Evans said he expects the Fed's two rate cuts this year to help lift inflation to the central bank's 2% target, ...

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    5 days ago ... What's happening this week in economics? ... said that he still thinks the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates despite the new trade deal.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    #34     Oct 20, 2019
  5. Metamega

    Metamega

    Seems like a weird approach to a trade. Trades have entries and exits. The strategy should be based off both.

    What your suggesting is random entries work with a good exit strategy?
     
    #35     Oct 20, 2019
    Flynrider likes this.
  6. fan27

    fan27

    Around 2012 I started to "market time" my 401K, went to cash and watched as the market marched upwards. Did this for about a year and said screw this, went all in with equities and started maxing out my 401k contribution. Now, my 401k is set for "aggressive growth" and it re-balances once per quarter in a mixture of low cost equity mutual funds. At some point I will revisit having a long term timing system for my retirement account, but for now it is set it and forget it.
     
    #36     Oct 20, 2019
    digitalnomad likes this.
  7. Honestly, I wouldn’t bother seeking alpha outside of intraday signals. Once you go unhedged overnight, you lose your risk control, liquidity, and probably a lot of sleep too. Not my cup of tea. Life is too short.
     
    #37     Oct 20, 2019
    fan27 likes this.
  8. MattZ

    MattZ Sponsor

    @themickey Thank you for your perspective. Coming from the Futures world, my customers trade at most 5 instruments (from what I observed) and some single one that they focus on. When you trade 1000 stocks that you monitor daily, I agree that different risk management may be necessary.
     
    #38     Oct 20, 2019
  9. I think it’s time the site operators set text limits. Too many encyclopedia posts like this. It’s irritating to scroll through.
     
    #39     Oct 20, 2019
    easymon1 and comagnum like this.
  10. notagain

    notagain

    Long only /es MA for entries and ATR for exits, basic canned TOS
    Screen Shot 2019-10-20 at 11.18.07 AM.png Screen Shot 2019-10-20 at 11.19.02 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2019-10-20 at 11.12.28 AM.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    #40     Oct 20, 2019