How Much Froth Left In The Market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Nov 27, 2008.

How Much Upside for SPY?

  1. No Significant Retrace For A Month

    7 vote(s)
    16.7%
  2. +10% then -5%

    6 vote(s)
    14.3%
  3. +5% then -5%

    6 vote(s)
    14.3%
  4. +2% then -5%

    7 vote(s)
    16.7%
  5. 0 Upside, -5% In A Few Days

    16 vote(s)
    38.1%
  1. we need another 700 billion bailout
     
    #11     Nov 27, 2008
  2. Won't be enough, it should be doubled to $1.4 trillion for maximum benefit :D
     
    #12     Nov 27, 2008
  3. probably another bailout won't happen until we tank again.
     
    #13     Nov 27, 2008
  4. up we go again for a 5th day in a row
    go long. this market cant be stopped. everything is priced in.
     
    #14     Nov 28, 2008
  5. #15     Nov 28, 2008
  6. what if the bears got it wrong and the market keeps pushing up? let's look at march03 bottom to see what might be expected. the market rallied for 8 days (+14% gain), then retrace of 6%. so, if today is +day it is possible to have a few more days of upside.

    the magnitude of the moves needs to be adjusted for the increased volatility (not sure what the adjustment factor should be 1.5-2 maybe?).

    [​IMG]
     
    #16     Nov 28, 2008
  7. Support resistance maybe?
     
    #17     Nov 28, 2008
  8. relly???
     
    #18     Nov 28, 2008
  9. Undoubtedly, plenty of people are stuck short at these levels. Death watch for shorts continues with more record 5-day moves:

    xlf +35% (record, data only since 1999)
    spy +19.5% (record, data only since 1993)
    qqqq (+14%, not close to any record, data since 1999)
    xle +26% (record, data since 1999)


    ***disclaimer***: i am short spy


    :confused:
     
    #19     Nov 28, 2008
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    Thank the almighty printing press for this last 15% rally.....

    Most think these bailouts are the answer, I feel sorry for the fools who think this. The bear market is still kicking, sell the rallies or at least lighten up positions on any bounce, the bear has the bull by the horns and isn't letting go anytime soon.
     
    #20     Nov 29, 2008