These days are extraordinary conditions in stock indices with outsized profit segments. Enjoy them while they last. Hopefully we don’t return to the days of 2 to 4 points ES being viewed as a decent intraday profit segment. At least not in my lifetime. But we could eventually see a Japan post-1989 market. That would suck. Don’t get too comfortable. Gotta make hay while the sun shines.
The VIX has not gone below 15 for over 2 years now. At some point it will trade back to single digits again, i mean a 9 handle. Lets hope not any time soon.
Up your size to 50 lots while the going is good I put on a 20 lot e-mini position today. In 2008 & 2009 i was trading 200 lots sometimes.
I am also paranoid about this. Though... I presume if ES range shrinks to 10 points/day, the volume will increase................ and so my volatility-based sizing will do the right thing.
Trust me when I say this. The above scenario will never, ever happen again, ever. The days of 5 point ES ranges left the moment Powell took the helm, and the market has grown too large since then for there ever to be a return to where my mentor used to apply the moniker of "EverSlow" to the ES. That sloth activity is history. Hell, since the market reopened an hour ago, we already have a 10-point range in ES.
We will go back to 30-40 point average daily ranges in the S&P 500 at some point. When that happens the mid day lunchtime doldrums could see 5 point range choppy action on the more slower days. Thats still not as bad as the old days. When the S&P sometimes only moved in a 10 points range the whole day.