Please tell me how i should look in to the future to see if the system will survive the next let's say 5 years? For now it looks promising, both in back testing and the last few months in live trading. Like i said, i shall see what the future holds for me. Now this was my contribution to this thread, not interested in discussing with non believers. Think of it whatever you want ...
I've seen that book & will add it to my "to read" list. Meantime, would the formula be calculated something like this: Expectancy= [(4 X $50 emini SP500 point) X .52 win rate] - [(3 X $50) X .48 losing trade rate] = ($200 X .52) - (150 X .48) = $32 per average trade ? This doesn't seem to match your message. Seems I must read the book....
RDK91 - what does the abbreviation "RR" above mean? I take it ZB is 24hr gasoline and ZN is 24hr Nat Gas, correct?
RR = Risk Reward ZB is http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/us-treasury/30-year-us-treasury-bond.html ZN is http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/us-treasury/10-year-us-treasury-note.html
When I quit my job to trade nobody could have talked me out of it. I lasted for 6 years. The irony of it is my best years of profits were had when I was still working full time. The compounding factor, not having the performance pressure, and trading costs are probably why. Keeping the job while fast tracking your capital via maxing out your savings while investing and/or swing trading can rocket you out of the rat race a lot faster than you ever imagined. Like so many I got caught up in the illusion if I quit my job and just focus on trading I will make more $ - wrong! I learned less is more with trading, it takes time in the market like days, weeks, months to get the big gains. Yea, there are some rare birds that do well at day trading - but even those birds paid some hefty dues to get to that that level. Good luck man.
Well defo don't quit until you've been profitable for a few months atleast. Find a market you can trade before/during/after work, small account and practice practice practice, you'll go NUTS looking at charts all day, trying to guesstimate a direction and jump on it, so a few hours per day is more than enough anyway, even when full time. End of March if nothing goes wrong, is when I close my business, then got till end of May before I need my first wage, simples Not about the money, can't take the business, most of the people that I work in any more, just an alternative income source, not expecting to be a millionaire ever, if I can make say 2K USD maybe 3K USD most months that'll do me nicely. More important things than money!!
But I'm surprised that there is a continuous stream of new money...I work with a lot of young engineers who all make six figures and have a lot of disposable income. I only know one person aside from myself who trades actively. The rest all invest in mutual funds or 401k / ETFs. It doesn't seem like there is enough new money out there to support those who make a living from trading. Oh well, not my problem. Just curious.