fortunately most do not know how to determine the trend (done 100% objectively and not a wet finger approach) Sherlock
I assume that you do not mean efficiency but effectiveness instead. Not clear however on what you mean with the expression that you target 10% per natural cycle period - do you mean timeframe as function of cycle period? Sherlock
In the master swing trader, Farley says that stocks only trend, 5-15 % of the time....or some small %'age. what I dont understand is that, he also says that stocks trend in all time frames. so if stocks trend in all time frames, then theres a trend for scalpers, day traders, swing traders all at the same time? - nathan
no a tradeable item can (more often than not: will) trend in all timeframes yet not all timeframes will trend at the same time. In addition not all trends are exploitable due to slippage, commission, pace of movement. as Jack (Grob109) mentioned elsewhere in one of his numorous (and often indecipherable mumbo jumbo) threads: you'll have to trade the setup that will generate the highest money velocity. an example: a market can slowly "drift" in an upwards trend. However this goes together with nice wide oscillation of the price on a shorter timeframe. You need to have a strong reason to trade the longer timeframe (eg putting on a very large position that cannot be traded on the shorter timeframe) instead of just swingtrading the shorter timeframe on the "pullbacks". in other words: if the "pullback" is 90% of the orignal move then it is tough going to trade the longer tmeframe. Yet you can easily take out a large part of the swing. Now if the "pullback" is only 10% of the directional move instead then it would be far wiser to "hang in" with the longer trend (eg Google when it went parabolic or Gold before it reversed) and not focus on the shorter timeframe. Sherlock
I trade with a very short term horizon to limit my exposure to the market, rarely more than a couple of days. My problem is nailing down intraday trends so that I can trade with confidence. Would love to learn from a successful trader who is willing to throw some "table scraps" of knowledge my way. MS
Trend trader in that I trade in the direction of the trend. Normally I enter on retracements and then exit on either targets (resistance) or trailing stops and counts of pushes to tighten the stops. Intraday trends ... 30 minutes to 90 minutes. Fred: Find NQoos site and look up the floor trader system. This is a good way to find intraday trends (or end of day). If you cant find it pm me.
I'm not successful, but maybe this will help: 1. I look on daily charts for stocks that have had big moves. If I want to go long, I want to see a green candle forming on the daily chart..then i'll zoom in on the 60 minute or maybe even 10 minute (but mostly on 60) to see in more detail how fast its moving. I also pay attention to volume. I use high volume as confirmation to enter. I dont like getting in at the middle of a move...too unpredictable I think. 2. I dont know how long you stare at your screen, but you can make probably .20 - .50 just by looking at the quote box. I was following tie again, and after the high (at the time i was watching it) was 27.90, fell to 27.50, and traded from 27.50 - 27.70 time and time again. It then made new highs to 28+, but my point is, just observe, and you can make a few extra dollars. - Nathan
Just curious, do any of you that are position traders use married calls and puts to hedge against risk?. Maybe seems like an obvious question, but shorting is also a way of protecting against losses. What do you prefer? Also, when buying puts/calls as "insurance" does it matter exactly what option you buy, since you're only trying to protect against short term fluctuations that may not last until expiration day?. - nathan