I dont think AAA ever said he could go 60/40 against the vig regularly, no one can do that, that is the reason for the vig, i usually crack .500 every single year, but once the vig gets factored in i am a net loser, i only get paid 1.7 -1 if i beat the spread, think about how this decimates my profits when i need to bet on three games atleast, if i go three games it is 1.7*1.7*1.7, thats only 4.91 to 1 as opposed to 8 to 1 actual odds, that is a monster spread, for my bookie, and maybe other guys are getting better, but the bottom line is it is easy to win 60% of games, it is much tougher to turn a profit, based on 60% win rate based on these odds. For me the money is in the entertainment, i may not turn a net profit but i dont bet much more than 200-500 per week, so it is worth it for me just to have some fun while i watch some Football...... I never lose a TON more then i make but i have fun doing it, so its worth it. If you wanna have a fun bet, i will bet you 500 that i can beat 57% straight up against the spread this season...... Its just for fun I thought of a better idea, lets do it for charity, we each toss baron 500, and the winner between us 2 picks the charity, I dont think baron will have objections to this.
Ok, heres the deal, i guess Doc Z. doesnt want to participate so my deal to all paticipants this year who participate in the NFL point spread thread, is that i will give 500$ as a donation to a charity for whoever wins this year, BASED ON THREE CONDITIONS...... 1.)They must beat me. 2.)They must beat ThreeAAA 3.)They must provide commentary on their picks every single week. If the winner does this, and beats my winning percentage and AAA's winning percentage I will stroke another 500 dollar cheque, and this one will be a personal cheque...... So 500 charity and 500 personal to the winner of the point spreads...... If the winner ends up being AAA I will stokre a cheque to his charity of choice....
Only deal is you all got to actually play the game every week, AAA is the only one who doesnt, he can do it when he wantts.......
i know he can do it. i definitely can do it; otherwise, i wouldn't be in the business. it's the same as trading. i see the challenge presented by the other poster. i don't bet on every game (is that what you mean, or betting every week on a few select games?) i see AAA went 16-11, and he is not betting on every game. on average, i bet on 2 mlb games per day. if i bet on every nfl game, my percent winners ATS will probably drop from 70+% to 50 or even worse. i think the general spirit of the recent posts is to see how everyone tries to bet on the games they feel where the spread is really off.
I miss Tradesports.com is there anything out there like that now? (market like trading, ie put in bids and offers for games)
I dont bet on every game either....and i dont expect people to do that, thats the the whole point of profitable betting/trading, you only bet when you think you have an edge, i might have to adjust this bet a little though so someone doesnt just come in and bet on 3 games and go 3-0, maybe something like minimum 2-3 games per week, to be eligible, cause i usually bet on a minimum of 3 maximum 5 games per week, ill figure out something good to do for the people who want to participate in it this year. The problem i have as well is if i only make people bet on a certain total number of games throughout the season, i risk having smoe multi alias person coming in and stealing the bet, or creating new handles once they start off shitty, i got to think about this a little harder maybe i ran my mouth to quickly.....If i can figure out a way to do it where i feel like i can keep everyone honest i will.
My bet wasnt that i could beat you at picking, it was that i could beat 57 percent winning percentage, thats been my average over the last 6 years when i really got into betting, and i had 1 losing record which was the year before last. I bet enough games that it isnt a statistical anomally, last year i bet on 48 regular season games and came out 29-19, 8 post season and came out 5-3, this equals 60.7 percent over 54 games, on the games i chose as locks i went 5-2 last season, unfortunately my guy makes me choose atleast 3 games, and like i said i get 1.7-1 so he has roughly the same edge i have given the vig. I just wanted to prove it is very much possible to beat a 60 40 win percent, its just a hell of alot harder to beat the vig. Anyways it was just for fun, cheers....
You might want to rethink the statement above. It sounds like the many posters on ET that write about trading as a loser's game, usually because they haven't figure out how to make it pay. Joe.