Surf, of course you need to understand who is moving the price and to what aim, but I suspect the reason why 99% fails is because they keep looking for the holy grail or the ultimate edge and are too lazy or unfocused to actually do the work which is not studying book after book (a waste of time and actually counterproductive) but looking at what happen in real time long enough that you start figuring things out. As there are things that happens every day with incredible consistency but are not taught in books.