Once the high and the low were set in the morning there was a strong up move right through the 50% retracement. At this point along with the Fed talking about QE3 It was long the rest of the day.
So I take it you knew what was going to happen today? If you didn't, what makes you think your forecast for tomorrow will be any better? Tomorrow will be exactly like every other day. Good traders will make good trades and bad traders will make bad trades.
I don't trade FX because I am not a trend trader. I buy dips or sell tops and prefer instruments that range or trend slowly.
I knew what direction I wanted to be going in. Then it's left up to me to find the best spot(s) to position myself or scalp. Tomorrow = long. Still waiting for overnight Europe to confirm. Anything else? I don't have a crystal ball if that's what you're asking.
Yawnnn... The market always has an exact calculated target for distribution/accumulation. All you have to do is try to solve that target or get close. The cycles and patterns as it makes it's way to the target are unimportant and are just to collect stops, take out weak positions, and trap shorts/longs. On 7/12 I thought were going to rally toward a distribution target of 1355... Once I saw the price action off the open of 7/13 I knew we were going much higher. So, then I checked my calculations and came up with 1369 as the primary number last week... Well see if it's the magic one for the turn. I could care less if it's right wrong... You don't have to be perfectly correct in your predictions to be making money. Just follow your systems.
What are the big guys doing? What's the market told you in the last 8 hours/1 day? If your answer is nothing at all, then you need to start applying for jobs.
A hedge fund manager friend of mine I know is levered up long and expecting us to hit 1420+. Most all the big players are rushing into this market or already rushed in from the inverse H&S setup recently. And that is why I think were about to top out. These guys don't really give a damn if the market makes it to their targets or not. They are in from low prices around 1300. If the market shows more weakness than expected in the next few weeks and doesn't reach their projections they will lighten up on bounces. If your a true trader you just short the swing high or buy the swing low then see what happens after a few candles... Decide whether to keep holding or cut it with a slight profit if possible then move onto the next setup.
If you want to know what the biggest players in this market expect... I can tell you exactly what they expect. A friend of mine has sent me the Goldman sachs hedge fund advisories that are only supposed to be cleared for 50mm+ investors... All these idiots are expecting a 2007 replay where we shoot back to the highs. I think they are all wrong. I have my reasons for only waiting around for perfect swing high shorts when I do take swing shorts... Because if I'm wrong ill know it if the down move is weak and ill be able to reposition with no/little loss before the next trade cycle.
The only bullish thing I see in this market is in price... I had a distribute signal hit last week on the 5th count as we pushed into the weekly highs... And the pullback was minimal just like the 3rd count. Only 50 points from the weekly high on that swing before it broke the 20 range back upward after the 5th daily count downward. My fundamental thesis right now is were just seeing a lot of Pre-Jackson Hole complacency that is putting underside support under the market. But that doesn't mean anything other than sideways from here by my calculations.