Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by iamnewuser911, Nov 2, 2017.
3? 4? 5? How many then it becomes likely to continue?
talk about uptrend.
one higher lows is considered as uptrend. this is where I would enter.
if you enter at 2nd higher lows, it is definitely still uptrend but you enter at higher risk.
why some enter at 2nd higher lows? they hesitated and wanted reconfirmation.
but then, it carries higher risk
if you enter at 3rd higher lows, that is real disaster.
How many higher lows will there be?
Only God, time, and fortune teller with crystal ball will know.
The more you have the more likely the next pullback will be a reversal, never that easy.
There is no "official" definition, though logic suggests there should be at least 2 highs and 2 lows in sequence. After that, all trends are more likely to continue at any point in time than to reverse.
But even if you saw 30 points, this would not tell you the trend was 3 times more likely to continue than if you only saw 10. Your definition of trend is what you use in your strategy, its not a law of physics that the market needs to obey. Your personal analysis of 10 forex trends might leads you to different trading decisions to someone else looking at the same charts, but that's fine, as long as you obey the structure of the trends within the context of your strategy.
There are a few very fundamental aspects/concepts of "trend" which repay the effort of thinking about them, before addressing questions of the kind you've asked (which actually make a hidden assumption or two, some people might say!).
Here are some of the initial ones ...
1. A "trend" is something that exists only within a specific time-frame: it's normal for any instrument to be trending in one direction within the time-frame specified while at the same time either ranging or even trending in the opposite direction in various other time-frames (so maybe a "trend" isn't quite the "objective reality" implied in your question?);
2. If you're going to try to define a trend in terms of "numbers of higher highs/lower lows", you need to remain aware that you're not going to have anything more than a pretty subjective answer (because - as a trivial example - if you halve your time-frame, you're going to have to decide whether or not you also need to double your candle/bar-count for your "trend requirements" to be fulfilled, aren't you?);
3. It's possible to define, classify and analyze "trends" in many other ways, which don't require a specified number of higher highs/lower lows at all, for their definitions to be unambiguously and objectively verifiable.
I hope you don't think I'm being pedantic, or implying any criticism, by pointing out these considerations. They leapt to my mind simply because I think of myself (with only rare exceptions involving very specific reversal-patterns) as a trendfollowing-trader, but it would never occur to me, at all, to count higher highs/lower lows.
True, the later you enter you higher risk and lower probability I find.
Do you try to trade with the trend? Or believe in trends?
when you consider it a trend it will become a reversal.
(1) Put up a 20 period MA on a chart. (2) Look at it. (3) Place your bet.
This is a posting I made a few years ago.
To me the best definition of a trend and the practical application of trends is best laid out in Dow Theory, but without the confirmation factor. It has stood the test of time. But true, there are other ways to define trends.
Don't focus on highs or lows.
Focus on trendlines. You should vizualize them immediatly.
Draw lines, draw lines, draw graph of 1929' crisis, 1987' crisis, 2007, 2015...
History repeats, trendlines were, are, will be valid.
You can read Vic Sperandeo' Methods of a Wall Street Master.
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