Discussion in 'Trading' started by andrasnm, Jan 19, 2003.
I posted a Poll.
I recently read an article on message boards being a vary reliable contrarian indicator. It was related to the Fool boards.
It compared the most active stock discussions in one year to the performance of the stock in the following year. It was almost 100% contrarian. It also tracked the popularity of the daytrading discussions over the past several years when it was one of the most popular subjects near the end of the bull market to being almost non-existent today. A contrarian precursor?
doubter - a couple reasons i'd question that study.
first, many of the stocks which were part of the bubble were related to the message board area. for example, GNET was silicon investor. people who knew what a computer was would support their DELL, or their AMZN (bought there), or their YHOO (post there), etc. so it's somewhat skewed because of the target market.
another reason - if a stock is heavily shorted, the message boards tend to show a tremendous amount of posts. there's fights between the longs and the shorts, each trying to prove the other wrong.
finally, if there's a person high-up who is a target (ie. TSCM) that board will have lots of posts.
i would suspect, but not know for sure, that a relative increase in posts from a 1 month period to 9 months later might be useful for a contrarian play, but wouldn't know for sure.
1) short on capital and other means of income
2) a pure gambler at heart
3)I would include (If it was not so rare) the individuals who got a position from daytrading firms and get salary + stock etc plus an account (with incentive commission plan)
It is like selling your soul because you can't be honest and trade whatever the way you want you must constantly 'preach' the daytrading mantra....
Out of 100 or so orders, 3 to 5 fills per week.
There is another thread that touched on the contrarian take on the current sentiment. Barron's is fairly doom and gloom this week -- downright scary... perhaps there's a forced wash-out... just a thought.
4) None of the above
5) Extra set of brass balls
if i make a daytrade, i have ZERO risk overnight.
Separate names with a comma.